Newcastle Ready to Finish the Job

There’s really no need to speculate about who progresses from this tie. Newcastle’s 6–1 demolition of Qarabag in Azerbaijan has already settled it in all but name. Tuesday night’s return leg at St James’ Park is less about survival and more about professionalism — seeing the job through without drama before the CL knockout rounds properly begin. Still, European football has a habit of punishing complacency. And Newcastle’s recent home form suggests this may not be quite the procession the aggregate score implies.

Gordon Stole the Show — Now Comes the Management Phase

Anthony Gordon’s four-goal explosion in the first leg effectively ended the contest. Records tumbled along the way: the fastest CL hat-trick by an English player, the first Newcastle player to score four in the competition, and now the club’s top scorer in a single CL campaign. Malick Thiaw and Jacob Murphy added further gloss, but Gordon was unquestionably the headline act.

Historically, ties like this don’t turn. Every team in European Cup history to win a knockout first leg by five goals or more has progressed. Newcastle can already begin eyeing a potential last-16 meeting with either Chelsea or Barcelona.

Momentum, however, took a slight dent at the weekend. A narrow PL defeat to Manchester City exposed some defensive fragility — an issue that has quietly crept into their home performances recently.

Three defeats in their last four matches at St James’ Park, combined with a run of games conceding multiple goals, means Eddie Howe will still want a controlled response.

Qarabag Playing for Pride — and Perspective

For Qarabag, this trip to England is less about comeback fantasy and more about reputation. Their European campaign has included notable moments — a win over Benfica and a draw with Chelsea among them — but defensive vulnerabilities have ultimately caught up with them.

Conceding six goals in consecutive CL matches tells its own story.

Their record against English clubs is also discouraging: no wins in ten attempts, including several heavy defeats away from home. That hardly suggests a miracle comeback is on the cards.

Still, the Azerbaijani champions arrive well rested after a postponed domestic fixture, and with their league title challenge ongoing, avoiding further damage may be their main priority.

Team News

Newcastle defender Malick Thiaw is suspended after accumulating yellow cards, although the timing is relatively favourable given the aggregate situation. Several other players are carrying minor knocks, and Howe may rotate heavily rather than risk key personnel.

Younger players could get minutes, particularly if freshness ahead of the last 16 becomes the priority.

Qarabag also have defensive concerns following Bahlul Mustafazada’s injury in the first leg. Some squad adjustments are expected, though their main attacking options remain available.

Odds and Tips

Newcastle don’t need urgency — they need control. That typically produces a calmer tempo, fewer risks and often another comfortable win.

Qarabag may attack more freely, but that openness could ultimately favour the hosts.

Tip: Newcastle to win with a clean sheet at 2.00.

Odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
Last Updated: 24.02.2026