Toffees Eye Home Breakthrough
David Moyes and Everton are not typically associated with goal-fests. Yet the Toffees were involved in one of the weekend’s five-goal thrillers, and so were Burnley. Now the sides meet in a midweek clash at Hill Dickinson Stadium, where Everton are chasing a long-awaited home victory. Burnley, meanwhile, arrive in urgent need of points as they sit below the relegation line.
Everton travel back to Merseyside buoyed by an eye-catching 3–2 win away at Newcastle. Burnley, by contrast, endured a painful 4–3 defeat to Brentford at Turf Moor.
Analysis
The contest at St James’ Park was among the most entertaining of the round. Everton twice took the lead through Jarrad Branthwaite and Beto, only to be pegged back on both occasions by Jacob Ramsey and Jacob Murphy. It was ultimately Thierno Barry who delivered the decisive blow, but Jordan Pickford’s extraordinary save from Sandro Tonali’s fierce volley proved just as crucial in preserving the points.
The victory ended a two-match losing streak and keeps Everton in eighth place, still within touching distance of the European spots. However, the contrast between their home and away form is stark. Everton have failed to win any of their last seven matches at Hill Dickinson Stadium, losing five and drawing two, while collecting 14 points from the last 18 available on the road.
Burnley’s meeting with Brentford offered even greater drama. Trailing 3–0, they fought back to level at 3–3, thought they had surged into a 4–3 lead, though they were denied by VAR, and then fell behind again. Two potential goals were ruled out, one for a marginal offside, another after a lengthy VAR handball check. In the end, they were left empty-handed in a chaotic 4–3 defeat.
The result leaves Burnley second from bottom, and regardless of the midweek outcome, they will remain there. Defensively, the trend is concerning. They have conceded two or more goals in six of their last seven matches in all competitions and are yet to keep a single away clean sheet in the league this season.
Still, they can draw minor encouragement from December’s goalless draw with Everton, which ended a three-game losing streak against Tuesday’s opponents.
Team News
Everton are expected to name a similar squad to the one that defeated Newcastle. Mark Travers has returned as backup goalkeeper after a finger injury. Jack Grealish will not feature again this season following foot surgery, Carlos Alcaraz is sidelined for three to four weeks, and Seamus Coleman remains unavailable. Moyes faces a decision up front between Beto and Barry, with the latter pushing for a start after scoring the winner last time out.
Burnley also report no new injury concerns from the Brentford defeat. Lyle Foster returned from illness with a substitute appearance and could be considered from the outset, as could Lesley Ugochukwu. Josh Cullen, Connor Roberts, Zeki Amdouni, Axel Tuanzebe, Armando Broja, Jordan Beyer and Mike Tresor remain unavailable, while Marcus Edwards is doubtful.
Verdict and Betting Angle
Everton have struggled to impose themselves at home, but the momentum from Saturday’s win could provide the necessary lift. Burnley have shown resilience, yet their defensive frailties, particularly away from home, have repeatedly cost them.
Given the visitors’ inability to keep clean sheets on their travels and Everton’s renewed confidence after a significant away victory, this presents a strong opportunity for the hosts to break their home drought.
Our verdict: Everton to win at 1.62.
Don’t forget that we also have Early Payout on this match, which you can read more about here.
Odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
Last Updated: 03.03.2026
