April 29, 2025

Who will become the next Pope?

Following the death of Pope Francis on Easter Monday, a new Pope will need to be elected. A process known as a Conclave will be undertaken once the 88-year-old has been buried, honouring a tradition that has stood for centuries.

After dying from a stroke that had led to him experiencing a coma and cardiac arrest, a successor needs to be found. Francis’ successor will go through the same process that saw him become the first Latin American pontiff. The Conclave is a secretive procedure whereby all eligible cardinals participate in a phase of voting to elect the next head of the Catholic Church.

To be elected, they will need to secure two-thirds of the vote. With 135 cardinals being eligible (80 years old or younger, baptised, and male), the winner must receive 90+ votes. Several days and voting rounds can take place before someone is elected, with ballots continually being counted and then burned following an element of secrecy. They may not discuss their votes with each other, nor with anyone from the outside.

Who are the favourites to be elected the next Pope?

This conclave could be one of the most challenging to predict, as it is unique compared to previous ones. During his tenure as the pontiff between 2013 and 2025, Francis appointed 108 of the 135 cardinals eligible for election. This accounts for 80% of them. If anything, the only possible thing to potentially try and predict with any degree of success is that the Catholic Church will likely continue to follow the progressive and inclusive approach the Argentine had begun to implement. This may not be the case, though, as not all of his appointments were exclusively “progressive” or “traditionalist”.

Still, a few names have been mentioned as potential successors. To highlight the representation, the breakdown is as follows:

  • Europe – 53
  • Asia – 23
  • Latin America – 21
  • Africa – 18
  • North America – 16
  • Oceania – 4

This breakdown can be important when trying to predict who might be the next Pope, as beliefs or ideologies may differ depending on where they are from.

Still, it makes it an interesting betting market for bettors. Given the uniqueness of the situation and the unpredictability that so many diverse candidates bring, punters may find that they can obtain serious value from the odds that are being offered.

We take a look below at a few of the many candidates who are thought to be in the running to be the next Pope.

Pietro Parolin

Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin is considered a potential candidate for the role of the next Pope. He was the Vatican’s secretary of state under Pope Francis, which made him his chief advisor. For many, this makes the 70-year-old the natural successor.

He is softly spoken and also holds the role of being the head of the Roman Curia, which is the central administration of the Church. This has made him act as the deputy Pope in some instances, which is why he is a frontrunner.

However, he doesn’t come without his controversies. He has been critical of legislation that Francis was a supporter of. He has been vocal in the past about same-sex marriages, calling a vote in Ireland back in 2015 that legalised it “a defeat for humanity”.

Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle

Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle is another contender who is among the frontrunners to be elected Pope. If he is, the 67-year-old Filipino would become the first Asian Pope in more than 12 centuries.

Tagle is believed to be a favourite because of his decades of pastoral experience. He has been an active Church leader among the people, making him a popular choice. At the same time, the Philippines is thought to have a population that is 80% Catholic, with the five members of the College of Cardinals from the country a current record.

Some have dubbed him the “Asian Francis” because of his dedication to social issues and the sympathy he has for migrants. He has also opposed abortion rights while speaking out against euthanasia. He has also been favourable towards the LGBTQ+ community, urging the Church to reassess its “severe” stance toward gay people (as well as single mothers and divorcees) because of the lasting harm it has caused.

Tagle was thought to have been in the running in 2013, but he has since mentioned that he doesn’t believe it was ever a serious prospect. Perhaps 2025 could be the year he is elected Pope?

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu

Could 2025 see an African Pope? Appointed to the role of Archbishop of Kinshasa, Fridolin Ambongo Besungu is a name that is thought to be high up in circles as a potential successor. The 65-year-old Congolese has been in his role for seven years and could help the Church continue to add millions more members from the continent.

He has opposed blessings for same-sex marriage. However, he is considered a fierce advocate for the Church.

Still, he has made comments in the past that may leave cardinals finding it difficult to vote for him. In 2020, he spoke in an interview where he favoured religious plurality, which may make voters doubt whether he embraces their mission of spreading the Church’s word worldwide.

Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson

Another African who could become the first Pope from the continent in more than 1,200 years, Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson is a contender, even if he has stated in the past that he didn’t want the job back in 2013.

He made history in 2003 when Pope John Paul II made him the first cardinal from Ghana and had been the favourite to succeed him when he died a decade later. He may be a favourable option for those who want to see the Church be more progressive and continue its efforts in inclusivity.

Much like Francis, Turkson has been very progressive in terms of homosexuality. He has been a supporter of same-sex couples, opposing the criminalisation of gay relationships across the country, including in Ghana, where he spoke against a bill that had been debated in parliament about imposing harsh penalties on LGBTQ+ people.

Betting Strategies To Employ

If you are looking to place a bet on who you believe will be the next Pope, you should ensure to implement and follow certain betting strategies. As mentioned, the market is unique and highly unpredictable at this stage, particularly given the significant secrecy surrounding the entire conclave process. No outsider will know anything that is happening within the election process, which can make it difficult to know how a certain outcome is leaning.

Still, when it comes to placing a bet, bettors should consider the following:

  • Bet small – Placing a small bet amount can protect your bankroll and not blow any budget you may have.
  • Research – As you would with traditional sports bets, carrying out research may help to identify which cardinal(s) are among the most likely to be elected. It can be a good idea to look at age, views, and experience as key metrics.
  • Use a bonus – Bonuses can provide a good way of making a bet that can reduce financial risk. With the market as unpredictable as it is, it might be a good idea to use a free bet instead of placing real money on this type of novelty bet.

A difficult decision ahead

Conclaves can take a very long time to be completed, with them typically averaging three days, although there have been instances where it has lasted five in the modern era. Given that four rounds of voting take place daily, it highlights the difficulty of the task that cardinals have ahead of them. 90 or more need to agree with their vote, allowing white smoke to be burned and telling the world that a new Pope has been elected.

It’s a very interesting betting market and one that many can engage in, but when it comes to making successful predictions, it might just be a little harder than other bets that can be placed, as there doesn’t appear to be a clear favourite.

Still, expect it to be one of the few mentioned above, as these men have all been touted in one way or another.

Last updated: 29.04.2025