Cup Upset on the Cards in Southampton?
Arsenal travel to St Mary’s on Saturday evening looking to secure a place in the cup semi-finals, where they face a Southampton side enjoying one of their strongest runs of the season. The Gunners edged past Mansfield in the previous round, while the Saints beat Fulham 1–0 to book their spot in the last eight.
Match Analysis
Arsenal return to action still feeling the effects of their League Cup final defeat to Manchester City, a result that ended their hopes of winning four trophies this season. It was a flat display at Wembley, and one that raised a few questions about depth and sharpness in key areas. Still, their wider campaign remains strong. They lead the PL and have a favourable CL tie ahead, so the season is far from derailed.
In this cup, progress has been steady rather than spectacular. The win over Mansfield was more about getting through than impressing, but it extended their run to the quarter-finals for the first time since their last triumph in 2020. History is on their side at this stage. When Arsenal reach the latter rounds, they tend to go deep — and often all the way.
Southampton, though, won’t see this as a free hit. They are the last remaining Championship side in the competition and arrive with genuine momentum.
Their cup run has already included wins over Fulham, Leicester and Doncaster, and their recent form in the league has been just as encouraging. They have taken 10 points from their last four league matches and remain firmly in the promotion picture.
Across all competitions, they are unbeaten in 14 games, a run that has given them both confidence and belief heading into this tie.
St Mary’s has also been a tricky place for Arsenal in this competition before. Their last title defence ended here in 2021, and while the circumstances are different now, it’s not a ground they take lightly. That said, Arsenal have had the upper hand in recent meetings, winning both league games against Southampton last season.
This one could depend heavily on team selection. Arsenal are dealing with a long list of absentees and doubts, and with a CL tie around the corner, Arteta is unlikely to take unnecessary risks.
That opens the door slightly for Southampton, especially if the visitors rotate heavily.
Team News
Arsenal’s squad has been stretched by injuries and withdrawals over the international break.
Eberechi Eze, Noni Madueke and Mikel Merino are all out, while several others — including Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, William Saliba and Gabriel — may be rested. Their captain is pushing to return, while Kepa Arrizabalaga is expected to continue in goal.
Southampton have their own issues. Flynn Downes and Kuryu Matsuki are suspended, while Jack Stephens picked up an injury in training.
Mads Roerslev is out for the season, and there are also concerns over Welington, Jay Robinson and Alex McCarthy.
Odds and Tips
This has the feel of a tricky cup tie rather than a straightforward one.
Southampton are in excellent form and playing with confidence, while Arsenal may not be at full strength and have bigger fixtures on the horizon.
Even so, the visitors still have enough quality to edge this — particularly if the game opens up in the second half.
Tip: Arsenal to win at 1.29.
Odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
Last Updated: 03.04.2026
