Big Monday matches in France and Italy
Group A1 in the NL continues on Monday with two fascinating return fixtures as France welcome Belgium to the Stade de France and Italy face Türkiye in Bologna!
There is already plenty of recent evidence to work with. France travelled to Brussels on Monday and secured a dramatic 1-0 victory through Michael Olise’s 88th-minute winner, while Italy produced arguably their best international performance for some time by dismantling Türkiye 4-1 in Bursa.
The four teams will all play again on Friday before Monday’s fixtures, with France hosting Italy and Belgium facing Türkiye, but the opening two rounds have already provided some strong indications about their respective strengths and weaknesses.
France have made the perfect start under Zinedine Zidane, Belgium have shown encouraging signs under Mark van Bommel, Roberto Mancini has already overseen a remarkable Italian response, while Türkiye desperately need to find a solution to the defensive problems that Italy exposed ruthlessly. Here is our preview of Monday’s two Group A1 matches.
France vs Belgium
France’s new era could hardly have begun with better results. Two matches under Zidane have produced two victories, two clean sheets and six points. It has not always been spectacular, but considering the former Real Madrid coach has had limited preparation time and has already experimented extensively with his squad, the beginning is undeniably encouraging.
France opened with a 1-0 victory away to Türkiye, where Kylian Mbappé scored the winner shortly after half-time. That victory came at a significant cost, however, with the captain suffering a tendon injury to his left knee that ruled him out of the subsequent match in Belgium and is expected to keep him unavailable for the remainder of this international window.
His absence did not prevent France winning again. Zidane made nine changes for Monday’s trip to Brussels, with only Mike Maignan and Maxence Lacroix retaining their places from the starting XI against Türkiye. Lucas Da Cunha, Jérémy Jacquet, Andy Diouf and Esteban Lepaul were among those given their first senior starts.
It was hardly a conservative selection for a difficult away fixture. More importantly, the performance justified Zidane’s faith in his wider squad. France created the clearer chances, with Désiré Doué hitting the crossbar during the first half and Da Cunha striking the post after the interval. Belgium threatened themselves, particularly through Mika Godts and Dodi Lukébakio, but France looked increasingly likely to find the decisive moment.
It eventually arrived from the bench. Olise replaced Bradley Barcola with 14 minutes remaining, collected possession inside his own half in the 88th minute and drove towards the Belgian penalty area before curling a superb finish beyond Senne Lammens.
France had their second consecutive 1-0 victory and Zidane had maintained his perfect start. There was more significance to the performance than simply another three points.
Zidane has inherited an exceptionally deep group of players, and the Belgium match demonstrated just how much competition exists within it. Olise, Ousmane Dembélé, Rayan Cherki and Manu Koné were all options from the bench after Zidane changed almost his entire starting side.
Mbappé is obviously irreplaceable in an individual sense, but France may be better equipped than almost any national team to survive without their biggest star for a short period.
That depth should become increasingly important during this unusually demanding international window.
Monday’s return fixture will be France’s fourth NL match in only 11 days. Zidane has already demonstrated that he is prepared to rotate heavily, and another significant reshuffle would hardly be surprising after Friday’s meeting with Italy.
Belgium therefore cannot simply prepare to face the same France team they encountered in Brussels. Van Bommel has his own reasons for optimism despite Monday’s defeat.
Belgium began their NL campaign with an excellent 2-0 victory away to Italy, and they were competitive against France for long periods. Van Bommel said afterwards that he could not fault the intensity or quality of his players and felt there were clear signs of progress despite the result.
That is important because Belgium are attempting to move beyond the familiar discussion about an ageing golden generation. Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku remain important senior figures, but Van Bommel is integrating a younger group around them.
Godts, only 21, started against France and caused problems from the left. Diego Moreira started on the opposite flank, while Roméo Lavia partnered Youri Tielemans in midfield. Joaquin Seys, Nathan Ngoy and Matias Fernandez-Pardo are further examples of players who could become increasingly prominent during this cycle.
The transition will not happen overnight, and Belgium remain reliant on De Bruyne to provide much of their creativity. That was evident against France.
Belgium had promising moments but struggled to turn them into high-quality opportunities consistently. When De Bruyne was withdrawn after 63 minutes, Van Bommel’s team lost some of their ability to find passes through France’s midfield.
Lukaku’s fitness is another factor. The veteran striker did not start Monday’s match, leaving Charles De Ketelaere to lead the attack, and Belgium lack the same penalty-area presence without their record goalscorer.
At the Stade de France, those small differences could become decisive. France are likely to want possession under Zidane. After the win in Brussels, the new coach specifically highlighted his desire for his team to dominate the ball, and the technical quality available in midfield gives him numerous ways of achieving that.
Eduardo Camavinga can dictate from deeper areas, Koné provides physicality and progression, while Cherki and Olise can create between the lines. Dembélé and Barcola offer direct running from wider positions.
Belgium’s best route may consequently be to accept periods without possession and attack quickly when France lose the ball.
Godts and Lukébakio demonstrated on Monday that France can be stretched in wide areas. The hosts are still learning Zidane’s structure, and another heavily rotated defensive line could give Belgium opportunities.
The problem is converting them. France have conceded no goals in their opening two NL matches, despite using significantly different teams, while Belgium failed to score from the opportunities they created in Brussels.
Repeating the same fixture only seven days later creates an interesting tactical dynamic. Van Bommel now has first-hand evidence of what worked and what did not, but Zidane has so many selection possibilities that France may present an entirely different problem. Home advantage ultimately tilts this towards Les Bleus.
Team news
Mbappé is not expected to return during this international window after suffering the left-knee tendon injury against Türkiye. His absence leaves France without their captain and primary goalscorer, but Zidane has Dembélé, Barcola, Doué, Olise, Cherki, Akliouche and Lepaul among his attacking options. Dembélé is next in the captaincy hierarchy and could wear the armband if he starts.
Belgium’s current squad includes Lukaku, De Ketelaere, Openda, Godts, Lukébakio and Fernandez-Pardo among the attacking options, while De Bruyne, Tielemans and Lavia provide considerable midfield experience and quality.
Both coaches’ final selections will inevitably be influenced by Friday’s matches and the physical condition of players after three games in little more than a week.
Recommended bet
France to win at 1.58.
Belgium showed enough in Brussels to suggest this will not be straightforward, but France were able to make nine changes, hit the woodwork twice and still find a way to win away from home.
The depth available to Zidane becomes particularly valuable during such a congested international window.
France have also won the last three competitive meetings between the countries, including 2-0 in the NL in 2024 and Monday’s 1-0 victory in Brussels.
Without Mbappé, another comfortable victory cannot be assumed. France should nevertheless have enough quality to make home advantage count.
Prediction: France 2-0 Belgium
Italy vs Türkiye
If France’s opening two matches have been about consistency, Italy’s have been about contrast. Roberto Mancini’s return as national coach began disastrously.
Italy were beaten 2-0 by Belgium at the Stadio Olimpico in their NL opener, immediately reinforcing the pessimism surrounding a national team still recovering from the enormous disappointment of missing the 2026 international tournament.
Three days later, they looked like a different side. Italy travelled to Bursa and demolished Türkiye 4-1, scoring three times inside the opening 27 minutes and effectively deciding the match before half-time.
Alessandro Bastoni opened the scoring after nine minutes, Davide Frattesi doubled the advantage in the 22nd and Michael Kayode marked his international debut with Italy’s third five minutes later. Barış Alper Yılmaz briefly reduced the deficit immediately after half-time, only for Francesco Pio Esposito to restore the three-goal advantage three minutes later.
It was the kind of performance Italy desperately needed. Mancini returned to the national team with considerable work ahead of him. The coach who led Italy to European glory in 2020 has openly acknowledged that the current talent pool does not contain the same concentration of elite attacking players the country possessed in previous generations.
His response appears to be embracing youth. Italy’s original squad for this NL window contained nine uncapped players, and Kayode’s performance in Türkiye demonstrated why Mancini is prepared to accelerate the transition.
The Brentford full-back was outstanding. His attacking movement caused Türkiye enormous problems down Italy’s right side, and his debut goal capped a first-half performance in which the visitors repeatedly found ways around and through Vincenzo Montella’s defensive structure.
Alessandro Romano has also received substantial responsibility in midfield, while Pio Esposito offers Italy a young centre-forward capable of giving them the physical focal point they have often lacked. The most encouraging element was the aggression.
Italy did not travel to Türkiye and attempt to manage the game cautiously after losing their opener. They pressed high, moved the ball quickly and attacked space with purpose.
Türkiye simply could not cope during the opening half-hour. For Montella, that is the obvious concern before travelling to Bologna only seven days later. His team have lost both NL matches so far, although the performances were very different.
Türkiye were competitive in their 1-0 defeat to France and only conceded when Mbappé struck early in the second half. Against Italy, however, their defensive structure collapsed almost immediately.
The wing-backs struggled to contain Italy’s width, while the hosts repeatedly surrendered possession in dangerous areas when Mancini’s side pressed aggressively. Türkiye improved significantly after half-time.
They pushed their defensive line higher, became more aggressive without the ball and began getting Arda Güler involved more regularly. Barış Alper’s goal arrived only two minutes after the restart, and Türkiye subsequently created opportunities that could have made the scoreline considerably more respectable. That second-half improvement gives Montella something to work with.
Güler remains the key. The Real Madrid midfielder is capable of receiving possession in areas where Italy do not want opponents turning towards their defence, and his creativity gives Türkiye a route into matches even when the wider team is struggling.
Kenan Yıldız offers another high-level individual threat, while Barış Alper’s physicality can cause problems when Türkiye manage to progress possession into the final third. The issue is providing those players with a platform. Türkiye cannot allow Italy the same freedom they enjoyed in Bursa.
Montella must either make his pressing considerably more coordinated or accept that his side need a more conservative defensive shape. Attempting something between the two approaches was disastrous on Monday, as Italy repeatedly played through the first line of pressure and then attacked an exposed defence.
There is also a significant historical obstacle for Türkiye. They have never beaten Italy at senior international level. Monday’s defeat extended an already one-sided record, and travelling to Bologna immediately after losing 4-1 at home hardly provides ideal circumstances for ending that sequence.
Italy should nevertheless be careful about assuming the return fixture will follow the same pattern. Mancini made 10 changes between the defeat to Belgium and the victory in Türkiye. That demonstrates both the depth of experimentation currently taking place and how far Italy remain from having an established first-choice team.
Monday will also be their fourth match of the international window, and the home game against France on Friday is likely to demand substantial physical and emotional energy.
Squad management will matter. The positive for Mancini is that players who might previously have been considered alternatives are giving him genuine selection decisions.
Kayode could hardly have done more on debut. Pio Esposito scored after replacing Moise Kean. Frattesi once again demonstrated his ability to arrive in the penalty area at exactly the right moment, while Bastoni provides experience and composure behind an increasingly youthful midfield. That competition is precisely what Italy need as Mancini attempts to rebuild.
Team news
Italy have already lost Giacomo Raspadori for the remainder of the international window after the Atalanta forward suffered an injury. He has returned to his club and will miss both France and Türkiye. Nicolò Zaniolo has also left the squad, further reducing Mancini’s attacking options.
There remains considerable depth. Kean, Pio Esposito, Gianluca Scamacca, Sebastiano Esposito and several younger forwards were included in the original group, while Tonali, Frattesi, Fagioli and Romano provide different midfield combinations.
Türkiye have an important concern over Orkun Kökçü, who has been dealing with a toe injury. Montella still has Güler, Yıldız, Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Barış Alper among his principal attacking options.
As with France–Belgium, Friday’s round of NL matches will be crucial in determining exactly who is fit enough to start again on Monday.
Recommended bet
Italy to win at 1.48.
There is an obvious danger in drawing too many conclusions from one match, particularly when the same teams meet again only seven days later. Nevertheless, the scale of Italy’s superiority in Bursa was difficult to ignore.
Mancini’s side were 3-0 ahead inside 27 minutes and exposed structural problems that Türkiye will have had very little time to correct. Italy will now have home advantage at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, where another energetic pressing performance could create similar difficulties.
Türkiye possess enough attacking talent to make the return meeting more competitive, and Güler in particular can punish Italy if given space.
That makes Italy to win and both teams to score an interesting alternative for those seeking a more ambitious selection. The safer choice remains the home victory.
Prediction: Italy 2-1 Türkiye
Betsmith’s NL Verdict
These two fixtures may look very different by Monday depending on what happens on Friday, but the evidence from the opening rounds points towards the two home teams.
France have started Zidane’s reign with consecutive victories despite changing personnel dramatically and losing Mbappé to injury. The performance in Brussels was particularly encouraging because it demonstrated that France can win without relying on their captain or even their strongest starting XI.
Italy are far less settled, but the 4-1 victory in Bursa offered the first convincing evidence that Mancini’s return could quickly change the mood around the national team. Belgium and Türkiye both have enough individual talent to respond.
Van Bommel’s Belgium are further along in that process and already demonstrated their quality by winning 2-0 in Italy. Türkiye’s immediate problem is more fundamental: they must work out how to prevent Mancini’s side from exposing the same defensive weaknesses for a second time in seven days.
Our selections: France to beat Belgium and Italy to beat Türkiye.
Last Updated: 02.10.2026
