Italy to miss out on WC again?

Bosnia-Herzegovina host Italy on Tuesday night in Zenica with a place at the 2026 WC on the line. Neither side has featured at the tournament since 2014, which only adds to the tension around this decisive WC playoff fixture.

Match Analysis

For Italy, this is about putting recent history behind them. Back-to-back playoff failures against Sweden and North Macedonia still hang over the national team, and this is now their third straight qualifying campaign that has taken this route. They at least got through the semi-final. After a slow first half against Northern Ireland, Italy stepped it up after the break, with Sandro Tonali and Moise Kean scoring in a 2–0 win.

Their group performance had been strong overall, but two heavy defeats against their a Northern European underdog showed there are still issues, particularly when they are put under pressure defensively. Since Gennaro Gattuso took over in September, there has been a shift going forward. Italy have been creating and scoring more regularly, even if the balance is not always perfect.

Bosnia come into this with momentum of their own, even if their route here was far more dramatic. They needed penalties to get past Wales, after being pushed all the way in Cardiff. Edin Dzeko kept them in it with his goal, and they held their nerve when it mattered. That result keeps alive the chance of reaching a first WC since 2014, and only a second major tournament appearance since independence.

Playing in Zenica should help. The conditions and the crowd can make it uncomfortable for visiting teams, and that could be important given Bosnia sit 58 places below Italy in the official rankings. Bosnia’s setup is fairly straightforward. They stick to a 4-4-2, stay compact, and look to make the most of moments rather than dominate the game.

Dzeko is still the key figure. He drops in, links play and finishes when chances come his way, while Ermedin Demirovic does more of the running and pressing alongside him.

Italy’s approach is more about controlling the game, but not in a slow or passive way. With Gattuso in charge, there is a bit more urgency to how they move the ball, especially through midfield.

Tonali, Barella and Locatelli are heavily involved in that. They cover ground, recycle possession and push the team forward when the space opens up. The width tends to come from deeper positions, with players like Dimarco and Politano getting forward and putting balls into the box rather than the attack relying purely on central play.

The back three gives them a solid base, and with Donnarumma behind them, they generally look comfortable unless the game becomes stretched.

Team News

Italy are expected to stick close to the side that beat Northern Ireland. Mateo Retegui could make way, with Pio Esposito pushing for a start after scoring three goals in his last five qualifiers. Bastoni, Mancini and Calafiori are all available despite recent knocks.

However, Federico Chiesa and Giovanni Di Lorenzo are out, and Gianluca Scamacca remains unavailable.

Bosnia are unlikely to make major changes. Dzeko, now on 73 international goals, will lead the line again alongside Demirovic. At the back, Kolasinac and Muharmovic bring experience, particularly against Italian opposition.

Dennis Hadzikadunic is the main absentee, while Karic, Malic and Gazibegovic were not included in the squad.

Verdict and Betting Angle

This has all the signs of a tight game where neither side wants to make the first mistake.

Bosnia will look to stay in it for as long as possible, while Italy are likely to have more of the ball and try to wear them down.

Over time, that control could make the difference.

Tip: Italy win (after extra time) at 8.00.

Odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
Last Updated: 30.03.2026