Italian 26/27 Preview Pt. 1: Top Third
We’re approaching the 2026/27 Italian season with Inter defending champions, several rebuilt challengers and one club attempting to prove that last year’s remarkable breakthrough was no accident. Let’s take a closer look at the upcoming season in Italy.
Inter start at the front after winning the Scudetto under Cristian Chivu, while Napoli finished second and Roma and Como completed an unexpected CL quartet. AC Milan, Juventus and Atalanta were left with EL or ECL football, making improvement a necessity rather than simply an ambition for three of Italy’s traditional European contenders.
The summer has only made the picture more intriguing. Inter have refreshed their championship-winning squad, Napoli have turned to Massimiliano Allegri, Juventus are giving Luciano Spalletti his first full season, and AC Milan have backed Ruben Amorim with significant investment.
Roma and Atalanta also have legitimate top-four ambitions, while Como begin the season in the unusual position of being CL participants after only two years back in the top division.
Seven clubs make up our top third, but there is very little agreement over the order in which they should finish.
Read part 2 of our 26/27 Italian football season preview here.
Read part 3 of our 26/27 Italian football season preview here.
Read our preview of the French 26/27 season here.
Read our preview of the Spanish 26/26 season here.
Read part 1 of our PL 26/27 season here, with part 2 and part 3 also out.
Inter
Last season: 1st
Manager: Cristian Chivu
Inter begin as the obvious benchmark because they are the only team in this group that do not have to imagine what a title-winning version of themselves looks like.
Chivu delivered the Scudetto in his first season, with Inter producing a campaign built around attacking power as much as the defensive structure traditionally associated with the club. Lautaro Martinez remained their attacking leader, while Federico Dimarco continued to provide creativity and width from the left.
The task this summer has been to refresh rather than rebuild. Denzel Dumfries’ departure for Real Madrid created one obvious vacancy, and Inter have responded by signing Djed Spence from Tottenham for around €35m. The England international already knows the league from his spell with Genoa and arrives after featuring prominently at this summer’s international tournament.
John Stones represents a different type of addition. The former Manchester City defender brings enormous experience and gives Chivu another player comfortable progressing possession from the back, while his ability to step into midfield creates interesting tactical possibilities.
Those signings are important because Inter have also lost experience elsewhere. Francesco Acerbi and Matteo Darmian have moved on, meaning Chivu cannot simply reproduce last season with exactly the same personnel.
There should nevertheless be enough continuity where it matters. Lautaro remains, Dimarco remains and the tactical structure is already established, while Spence appears capable of replacing much of the athleticism lost with Dumfries.
Inter may yet strengthen midfield before the window closes, with Curtis Jones among the players linked with a move from Liverpool, although that remains potential business rather than something that should be included when judging the squad as it currently stands.
Their biggest advantage over the other title contenders is straightforward: fewer things need to go right. Napoli have changed managers, Juventus are still rebuilding and Milan are undergoing a substantial tactical transformation. Inter already know that their coach, system and core group can win the league.
Betsmith verdict: The team to beat. Inter have lost some important experience but have replaced it intelligently, particularly with Stones and Spence. The champions start with fewer uncertainties than their rivals and remain our favourites to finish first.
Napoli
Last season: 2nd
Manager: Massimiliano Allegri
Napoli finished second last season, so Massimiliano Allegri is not inheriting a broken team. That distinction is important. His job is to take a side that was already capable of challenging Inter and find the additional consistency required to overtake them.
The most significant change comes in attack. Romelu Lukaku has departed for Fenerbahce following an injury-affected final season in Naples, leaving Rasmus Hojlund and Lorenzo Lucca as the principal centre-forward options.
Neither offers an exact replacement for Lukaku, which may actually give Allegri greater tactical flexibility. Hojlund provides mobility and the ability to attack space, while Lucca offers the physical presence required when Napoli want a more conventional focal point.
The midfield remains one of the strongest areas of the team. Scott McTominay has been an outstanding addition since arriving in Italy, combining physical strength with a goalscoring contribution that few expected when he left Manchester United. Kevin De Bruyne provides another level of creativity when available, giving Allegri the ingredients for a midfield capable of controlling matches in several different ways.
Defence remains the area where further business could change our assessment. Napoli also seem to have secured Benoit Badiashile, with the deal seemingly just about complete.
Allegri’s arrival inevitably creates expectations of a more cautious Napoli, but reducing his football to defensive conservatism would be misleading. His best Juventus teams could control games without sacrificing attacking quality, and this Napoli squad contains enough technical ability to give him options.
The bigger concern is goals. Inter have Lautaro as an established attacking reference point, while Milan have invested heavily in Goncalo Ramos. Napoli need Hojlund, Lucca and the supporting attackers to share the responsibility previously carried by a more established goalscorer.
They should still be close to the top. Napoli were second last season and have enough quality to remain in the Scudetto race well into 2027.
Betsmith verdict: Inter’s strongest challengers. Allegri inherits a side that already knows how to compete near the top and should make Napoli extremely difficult to beat. The absence of a guaranteed prolific striker is the main reason we have them narrowly behind the champions.
Juventus
Last season: 6th
Manager: Luciano Spalletti
Sixth place is not good enough for Juventus. The club know it, Luciano Spalletti knows it, and their summer business reflects an attempt to close the gap quickly.
Spalletti now has the benefit of a full pre-season and a squad increasingly shaped around his requirements. Juventus have strengthened several areas rather than relying on one headline signing to transform the team.
The latest addition is Jhon Lucumí. The Colombian centre-back completed his move from Bologna on 17 August for €19.5m plus potential bonuses and gives Juventus a defender with extensive experience from the league. Pairing him with Gleison Bremer should provide Spalletti with the basis of a significantly stronger defensive unit.
Another important arrival is imminent in goal. Juventus have agreed a loan deal with Tottenham for Guglielmo Vicario, including an option to buy, after ending their interest in Aston Villa’s Emiliano Martinez. Vicario knows the league extremely well from his time with Empoli and should provide immediate competition for Michele Di Gregorio.
Randal Kolo Muani gives the attack a different profile following Dusan Vlahovic’s departure. He can stretch defences, move into wider positions and fit naturally into the fluid attacking structures Spalletti generally prefers.
Much could also depend on Kenan Yildiz. The Turkish international has already shown that he possesses the technical ability to become one of the league’s outstanding attacking players. Juventus now need him to influence games consistently enough to move from exciting talent to genuine star.
Spalletti should help. His championship-winning Napoli side demonstrated what can happen when technically gifted attackers are given a clear structure without having their creativity restricted. If he can achieve something similar with Yildiz and Kolo Muani, Juventus should score more freely than they did during some of their recent campaigns.
There are still enough changes to make an immediate title win difficult to predict. Lucumí has only just arrived, Vicario is another late addition and Spalletti is attempting to establish a different identity across the entire team. Juventus do, however, look much more capable of challenging the top two.
Betsmith verdict: Our choice to return to the CL places. Juventus have addressed important weaknesses and Spalletti is an excellent coach for this stage of the rebuild. The Scudetto may arrive a season too early, but third place is a realistic target.
AC Milan
Last season: 5th
Manager: Ruben Amorim
Milan’s greatest problem last season was relatively easy to identify. They did not score enough goals. The club have responded decisively by signing Goncalo Ramos from Paris Saint-Germain, giving Ruben Amorim a recognised centre-forward around whom he can build the attack.
Ramos has already offered encouraging signs during pre-season, including a goal in Milan’s 4-2 victory over Manchester United. His movement inside the penalty area gives the Rossoneri something they lacked too often last season and should create more space for the attacking players around him.
Mario Gila is another important addition. The former Lazio defender already understands the league and appears well suited to the three-man defensive structure Amorim has traditionally preferred. His arrival reduces some of the adaptation risk that naturally comes with appointing a manager whose tactical system differs considerably from what the squad previously played.
Milan have now moved aggressively for another major reinforcement. A deal worth around €50m plus bonuses has been agreed with Strasbourg for Diego Moreira, although at the time of writing the formalities surrounding the transfer are still being completed.
That potential arrival makes the final weeks of the window particularly interesting because Rafael Leao’s future has also attracted speculation. Any departure of that magnitude would obviously alter Milan’s attacking picture and should be assessed if it happens rather than treated as inevitable beforehand.
Samuel Chukwueze has meanwhile returned from his Fulham loan and produced an excellent pre-season under Amorim. If the Nigerian can finally translate that form into consistent league performances, Milan suddenly possess much greater attacking variety than they did last season.
The question is how quickly Amorim can make everything function together. His football requires detailed positional understanding, particularly from the wing-backs and the players operating behind the striker. Milan have enough talent to make the system work, but the first months may contain the type of uneven performances that accompany substantial tactical change.
That makes them difficult to place. The squad has enough quality to finish in the CL positions and enough upside to enter the title race, but Inter and Napoli begin with more established structures.
Betsmith verdict: Milan should improve, and Ramos could prove one of the league’s most important summer signings. We expect them to challenge Juventus closely for third, although Amorim’s tactical overhaul may cost enough early points to leave them just outside our top three.
Roma
Last season: 3rd
Manager: Gian Piero Gasperini
Roma enter the season in an unusual position: they finished above Juventus, Milan and Atalanta last year, yet could still find themselves underestimated when predictions are made for 2026/27.
That would be a mistake. Gian Piero Gasperini’s first campaign delivered third place and CL qualification, ending Roma’s long absence from Europe’s premier competition. More importantly, it provided evidence that his methods could be transferred successfully from Atalanta to a club with very different expectations.
The second season brings a different challenge. Opponents now understand how Gasperini’s Roma operate, while CL football places additional demands on a squad that could prepare almost exclusively around the league last season.
Roma therefore need depth. Zeki Celik’s departure for Juventus removes a useful defensive option, while the club have spent much of the summer looking for greater pace and directness in attack. Malick Fofana has been among the leading targets, although no completed deal should be assumed while negotiations continue.
The existing attacking talent still gives Gasperini plenty to work with. Paulo Dybala remains capable of deciding matches through moments few other players in the league can reproduce, while Matias Soulé has the opportunity to take another step after an encouraging campaign. Roma’s challenge is ensuring those creative players remain effective while the schedule becomes considerably more demanding.
Gasperini’s own presence is a major reason for optimism. He has spent years demonstrating an ability to improve players, create productive attacking systems and keep teams competitive despite squad turnover. Roma’s third-place finish was not built on a short burst of form; it was the result of a clear tactical identity that should become more established during his second season.
The danger is simply that several rivals have improved. Juventus have strengthened, Milan have invested heavily and Atalanta have appointed Maurizio Sarri. Roma may therefore become a better team without matching last season’s third place.
Betsmith verdict: Another serious CL contender. Roma have greater tactical continuity than Juventus or Milan, but the additional European workload makes repeating third place difficult. We expect them to remain in the top-five conversation throughout the season.
Atalanta
Last season: 7th
Manager: Maurizio Sarri
Atalanta’s decision to appoint Maurizio Sarri makes them one of the hardest teams in league to predict. The quality is obvious. The uncertainty comes from how quickly a squad accustomed to one footballing identity can embrace another.
Sarri’s positional game differs substantially from the aggressive man-to-man approach associated with Atalanta for so many years. His football demands precise spacing, coordinated movement and players comfortable circulating possession quickly through midfield.
The summer recruitment has consequently been important. Gianluca Gaetano has arrived from Cagliari and offers the technical qualities Sarri values, though there is also uncertainty around some of the attacking talent. Charles De Ketelaere remains an extremely valuable player for a possession-based coach because of his intelligence between the lines.
Sarri’s pedigree should not be overlooked. He has won the league before and has repeatedly produced teams capable of playing excellent league football. Unlike a coach learning the division or attempting his first major job, he already understands the tactical demands of Italian football and the pressure attached to chasing CL qualification.
Atalanta also have recent experience of European competition throughout the squad. The concern is that seventh place last season left them with ground to recover, while Roma and Como both demonstrated that the traditional hierarchy can no longer be taken for granted.
Betsmith verdict: Capable of finishing anywhere from fourth to seventh. Sarri gives Atalanta a high ceiling, but replacing Ederson and implementing a substantially different style may require time. We currently have them narrowly outside the CL places.
Como
Last season: 4th
Manager: Cesc Fabregas
At what point does a surprise stop being a surprise? Como finished fourth last season and qualified for the CL. After the investment made in the squad and the progress achieved under Cesc Fabregas, continuing to describe them as a romantic outsider risks ignoring what the club has actually become.
They are ambitious, well funded and very well coached. Fabregas has created a possession-based side that is comfortable playing proactively against stronger opponents rather than simply defending and counter-attacking. Nico Paz has become one of the league’s outstanding creative talents, while the club’s recruitment continues to target players capable of raising the technical level.
Trevoh Chalobah is a significant summer addition. The former Chelsea defender brings PL and European experience and gives Como greater athleticism at the back, something that becomes particularly valuable when Fabregas asks his defensive line to operate aggressively.
The club have also explored further additions, while the interest being shown in their own players demonstrates how quickly the squad’s reputation has grown. Atalanta are among the clubs to have considered Assane Diao during the summer.
The greatest obstacle is not necessarily quality. It is the calendar. Last season Como could spend most weeks preparing specifically for their next league opponent. This season brings CL travel, midweek matches and the requirement to rotate players who previously started almost every important league game.
That changes the challenge considerably. Fabregas must prove that his methods work when preparation time is reduced and his strongest XI cannot play every three or four days. The squad must also learn how to recover emotionally from major European nights before facing supposedly less glamorous domestic opponents.
Those are problems created by success, and Como would happily accept them. We do expect some regression in their league position, but that should not be confused with expecting the project to collapse. Como have progressed too quickly and recruited too ambitiously to be dismissed as a one-season phenomenon.
Betsmith verdict: The most fascinating team in the league. Repeating fourth place while playing CL football may be a step too far, but Como should remain firmly in the European race and are capable of beating any of the established powers.
Betsmith prediction: Who finishes in the top four?
Inter remain our title favourites. They have changed less than their closest rivals, retained the central pieces of their championship team and recruited specifically to replace important departures. Chivu begins his second season with an established structure rather than a tactical experiment.
Napoli are the most convincing alternative. Allegri inherits last season’s runners-up and should ensure that they remain extremely competitive even while the attack adjusts to life without Lukaku. The final two CL positions are much more difficult to separate.
Juventus have arguably made the clearest improvements to their squad and have a coach capable of producing excellent league football, which is enough for us to move them from sixth to third.
Milan get our fourth position, narrowly ahead of Roma. Ramos directly addresses their biggest weakness from last season, and Amorim has enough quality available to make a substantial improvement even if his system requires an adaptation period.
Roma are the unlucky side in our projection. We expect Gasperini’s team to remain strong, but CL football increases the workload while Juventus and Milan both appear stronger than they were last season. Atalanta and Como complete an extremely competitive top seven.
Our projected order is:
1. Inter
2. Napoli
3. Juventus
4. AC Milan
5. Roma
6. Atalanta
7. Como
There is considerably more confidence behind first and second than there is between third and seventh. Juventus, Milan and Roma could realistically finish in almost any order, while a successful transition under Sarri would immediately put Atalanta into the same conversation.
Como are the team we expect to drop furthest in positional terms, but that is largely a consequence of their CL commitments. Finishing seventh while competing in Europe would hardly represent evidence that last season was a fluke.
Read part 2 of our 26/27 Italian football season preview here.
Recommended bet
Inter to win the league at 2.00.
There are more adventurous options available, but the defending champions remain the strongest pre-season selection.
Inter already possess the structure their rivals are attempting to create. Napoli have changed coach and centre-forward, Juventus are incorporating several important additions and Milan are learning Amorim’s system.
Chivu has fewer problems to solve. Spence provides a natural answer to Dumfries’ departure, while Stones adds experience and tactical flexibility to the defence. Lautaro remains the attacking reference point and the core of last season’s championship side is still intact. Spence’s €35m move was completed over the weekend, while Stones has also joined the defending champions this summer.
The gap may be smaller than it was last season, particularly if Juventus and Milan improve as expected, but Inter remain the side everyone else has to catch.
You can find all our Italian football odds, including match odds and outrights, here.
Last Updated: 21.08.2026
Odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
