German League: 2026/27 Preview
The German League returns with Bayern Munich in a familiar position: champions, overwhelming favourites and the team everybody else must find a way to catch. Let’s take a closer look at the German 2026/27 season ahead of this weekend’s opening fixtures!
The scale of Bayern’s dominance last season makes predicting a change at the top particularly difficult. Vincent Kompany’s side finished 16 points clear, lost only once and scored a league record 122 goals. Borussia Dortmund were comfortably the closest challengers, but even an excellent campaign left them nowhere near the champions.
The picture behind Bayern is considerably more interesting. Dortmund have reshaped their attack, Bayer Leverkusen are attempting to recover from a disappointing sixth-place finish, Stuttgart want to prove their CL qualification was no one-off and RB Leipzig have responded to a summer of considerable change by bringing Christopher Nkunku back to Germany.
At the bottom, Schalke return as 2. Bundesliga champions, Elversberg prepare for their first top division season and Paderborn complete the promoted trio. Here is how we expect the 18 clubs to finish in 2026/27.
Read part 1 of our Italian 26/27 season here, with part 2 and part 3 also available.
Read part 1 of our PL 26/27 season here, with part 2 and part 3 also out.
Read our preview of the Spanish 26/27 season here.
Read our preview of the French 26/27 season here.
Bayern Munich remain the benchmark
There is no sensible reason to predict anyone else as champions. Bayern were simply too good last season. Their 89 points would have been enough to win the league comfortably in most seasons, but the attacking numbers were even more extraordinary. Bayern scored 122 times in 34 matches, setting a new league record while averaging 3.59 goals per game.
Harry Kane was again central to everything. The England captain scored 36 league goals, secured another European Golden Shoe and now begins his fourth season in Germany chasing a fourth consecutive top-scorer award in the German top division.
Kane also enters the season with his long-term future attracting considerably less speculation. He said this month that he remains content in Munich and no longer feels the same desire to return to the PL.
Michael Olise and Luis Díaz ensure Bayern are far from dependent on their centre-forward for attacking quality. There have been changes elsewhere.
Leon Goretzka and Raphaël Guerreiro have departed, while Ismael Saibari and Nathaniel Brown are among the most significant additions. Brown has already enjoyed a memorable competitive debut by scoring against Dortmund in Bayern’s 2-1 Supercup victory.
Jamal Musiala’s situation creates greater uncertainty, although football becomes secondary given the health problems he experienced during the summer. Bayern have enough depth to avoid placing unnecessary pressure on his return.
The champions may not reproduce 122 goals or finish 16 points clear again. They do not need to. Their rivals first have to close an enormous gap.
Prediction: 1st
Dortmund are still the strongest alternative
Borussia Dortmund finished second last season and conceded only 34 goals, the best defensive record in the league. That gives Niko Kovač an excellent foundation. The bigger changes have come further forward.
Dortmund have added Joey Veerman, Giannis Konstantelias, Konstantinos Karetsas and Joane Gadou, while Julian Brandt is among the players to have moved on. Their summer business has changed the creative structure of the side without requiring the type of complete rebuild taking place elsewhere. The official league transfer centre lists all of the confirmed summer movement as the window approaches its final days.
Veerman should give Dortmund greater control in possession, while Karetsas may become one of the most entertaining young players in Germany.
There were glimpses of the new possibilities during the Supercup. Bayern dominated much of the first half, but Dortmund improved after the break and caused the champions genuine problems before eventually losing 2-1. The issue is not whether Dortmund are good. They clearly are. The question is whether they can transform a team capable of finishing comfortably second into one capable of keeping pace with a Bayern side that lost once all season.
Opta’s pre-season simulations underline the gap. Bayern are overwhelming title favourites, while Dortmund are nevertheless rated comfortably among the strongest CL candidates, with a 62.2% probability of qualifying. That feels about right.
We expect Dortmund to establish themselves as Germany’s second-best team again without seriously threatening Bayern over 34 matches.
Prediction: 2nd
Leverkusen can return to the CL
Sixth place was not good enough for Bayer Leverkusen. Their response has been significant. Carles Martínez is now in charge, while Miguel Gutiérrez, Facundo Medina, Afonso Moreira and highly rated midfielder Kennet Eichhorn are among the additions.
There have also been important departures, meaning this is not simply last season’s squad with a few upgrades. The positive argument is that Leverkusen’s ceiling remains considerably higher than sixth.
This is still a club with an excellent recruitment structure, substantial individual quality and recent experience of competing at the very top of German football. Opta’s model gives them a 52.6% probability of finishing inside the top four, making them one of the strongest candidates behind Bayern and Dortmund.
The early competitive signs have also been encouraging. Leverkusen began their DFB-Pokal campaign with a comfortable 4-0 victory over Wehen Wiesbaden, giving Martínez a positive result before the league begins.
There is too much uncertainty for us to place them ahead of Dortmund, but we expect a substantial improvement.
Prediction: 3rd
Stuttgart can hold off Leipzig
Fourth is the most difficult position in our top six to call. Stuttgart earned CL football last season after an excellent campaign in which they scored 71 goals. Their challenge now is proving that fourth place represents their current level rather than the peak of one particularly good season.
Making Bilal El Khannouss’s move permanent was important. Leo Sauer, Dženan Pejčinović and Grischa Prömel provide further options, while the overall structure of the team remains more settled than that of several rivals.
Their opening fixture against Bayern could hardly be more difficult, but Stuttgart’s season should not be judged on whether they can take points from the champions.
The direct comparison is with Leipzig. RB have undergone substantial change. Martín Demichelis is the new coach, while Yan Diomande, Xaver Schlager, Loïs Openda and Péter Gulácsi are among the important departures.
Rocco Reitz and Maxime Estève strengthen the squad, but the most interesting development has arrived immediately before the season. Christopher Nkunku is back at Leipzig.
His return from AC Milan adds proven attacking quality and changes the complexion of their summer business considerably. Nkunku knows the club, the league and the environment in which he previously produced the best football of his career.
That makes Leipzig dangerous. We still narrowly prefer Stuttgart because there are fewer moving parts. Leipzig may eventually have the higher ceiling, but Demichelis has a new team to construct while Stuttgart already know what works.
Prediction: Stuttgart 4th, RB Leipzig 5th
Hoffenheim can remain in Europe
Hoffenheim deserve more respect than simply being labelled last season’s surprise package. Fifth place and 61 points represented a sustained level of performance rather than a short burst of form. The challenge is maintaining it after another summer of player trading.
Bazoumana Touré and Prömel are among the significant departures, while the recruitment has again focused heavily on younger players with development potential. That model creates upside but also uncertainty.
Hoffenheim may not reproduce fifth place, particularly with Leverkusen expected to improve and Leipzig strengthening late in the window, but we do not expect them to disappear into mid-table.
Sixth feels realistic. Behind them, Freiburg, Eintracht Frankfurt and Mainz form an extremely competitive group.
Freiburg remain one of German football’s most reliable overachievers. Their summer additions include Mio Backhaus and Yannik Engelhardt, while their preparations concluded with an impressive 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace. The league’s pre-season tracker records the summer preparations and friendly results across the league.
Frankfurt need to improve after finishing eighth. Raphael Onyedika strengthens midfield, although losing Nathaniel Brown to Bayern removes an important player.
Mainz are perhaps the most interesting of the three. Eric Martel, Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer and Stefan Posch give them useful additional experience, and a 2-1 pre-season victory over Bournemouth provided further encouragement. We see very little between these clubs.
Prediction: Hoffenheim 6th, Freiburg 7th, Eintracht Frankfurt 8th, Mainz 9th
Gladbach lead the middle of the table
Borussia Mönchengladbach finished 12th last season, but there are reasons to expect improvement. Their summer preparations were excellent, including a 2-1 victory over Aston Villa, and the squad has been substantially refreshed.
Rocco Reitz, Nico Elvedi and Gio Reyna are among the departures, while Enzo Leopold, Yukhym Konoplia and Isac Lidberg have arrived. That level of turnover makes Gladbach difficult to predict, but we think they possess enough quality to lead the middle group.
Augsburg follow. They finished ninth last season and remain capable of pushing towards the European places when everything works, although the competition immediately above them looks stronger.
Werder Bremen are our choice to improve from 15th. The return of Niclas Füllkrug is particularly interesting. He already understands the club and provides a recognised centre-forward around whom Werder can construct their attack. Eren Dinkçi and Ludovit Reis add further options, although Romano Schmid’s departure is a loss.
Union Berlin should again be difficult opponents without possessing the attacking quality required to push much higher.
Hamburg complete our mid-table selections. Their second season after promotion brings danger, but the additions of Patson Daka and Terem Moffi give the attack more proven quality, while Albert Grønbæk’s move has been made permanent.
The league’s official transfer tracker confirms the extensive movement across these squads as the summer window enters its final stage.
Prediction: Gladbach 10th, Augsburg 11th, Werder Bremen 12th, Union Berlin 13th, Hamburg 14th
Schalke can survive on their return
The three promoted clubs present three very different cases. Schalke return as 2. Bundesliga champions and have recruited as though they have absolutely no intention of making their top division stay temporary.
Robin Gosens provides enormous experience. Maximilian Wöber strengthens the defence, Junior Dina Ebimbe knows the league and Junior Adamu adds another attacking option.
Then there is Edin Džeko. The veteran striker returns to the league more than 15 years after his previous appearance in the competition. He is obviously not a long-term solution, but Schalke are not asking him to become one. His experience and penalty-area presence could be extremely useful in precisely the type of tight matches that determine survival. The league itself highlighted Džeko’s return among its main pre-season stories this week. Schalke will not have the same quality as the teams competing for Europe.
They do not need it. Their target is 15th or better, and the summer recruitment gives them a stronger squad than many promoted champions bring into the division. We have them surviving.
Prediction: 15th
Elversberg can avoid automatic relegation
Elversberg playing top division football is one of the stories of the European season. This will be the first top-flight campaign in the club’s history, and their response to promotion has been fascinating.
Rather than suddenly filling the squad with experienced top division players, Elversberg have largely remained faithful to the recruitment philosophy that brought them this far.
Cole Campbell, Noah Darvich, Maurice Krattenmacher and Francis Onyeka are among the talented youngsters to arrive.
There is obvious risk attached to that approach. Young players can develop rapidly, but a relegation battle is not always a forgiving environment in which to learn.
Pre-season has nevertheless provided encouragement, including a 4-1 victory over Ligue 1 side Lorient.
Opta also sees Elversberg as having a realistic survival chance rather than automatically treating them as the weakest promoted club. We expect them to finish 16th and enter the relegation playoff.
Prediction: 16th
FC Köln and Paderborn are our relegation picks
FC Köln are our biggest call at the bottom. They survived last season, and there has been meaningful summer recruitment.
Ellyes Skhiri has returned, Thijs Dallinga has arrived on loan from Bologna and defensive additions include Gideon Mensah and Luka Lochoshvili. This is not a prediction based on FC Köln doing nothing. The problem is what has happened around them.
Schalke have recruited aggressively. Hamburg look stronger than they did a year ago. Elversberg arrive with an exciting group of young players, while several of the established mid-table clubs appear sufficiently strong to remain clear of the bottom.
FC Köln therefore begin with very little margin for error. They conceded 63 goals last season and cannot afford another campaign in which the defence repeatedly gives opponents opportunities. We have them narrowly losing the survival battle.
Paderborn finish 18th in our prediction. Their promotion was a major achievement, but the jump into the top division is enormous and their squad looks the weakest on paper.
Gabriel Vidović, Oliver Batista Meier and Laurin Ulrich are among the summer additions, and their pre-season results demonstrate that there is attacking potential. Over 34 matches, however, squad depth and defensive quality become increasingly important.
Paderborn are capable of causing surprises, particularly at home, but survival would represent an exceptional season.
Prediction: FC Köln 17th, Paderborn 18th
Our predicted 26/27 table
Our complete 2026/27 prediction is:
1. Bayern Munich – champions
2. Borussia Dortmund
3. Bayer Leverkusen
4. Stuttgart
5. RB Leipzig
6. Hoffenheim
7. Freiburg
8. Eintracht Frankfurt
9. Mainz
10. Borussia Mönchengladbach
11. Augsburg
12. Werder Bremen
13. Union Berlin
14. Hamburg
15. Schalke
16. Elversberg – relegation playoff
17. FC Köln – relegated
18. Paderborn – relegated
Bayern are comfortably our strongest prediction. The champions retain a substantial advantage over the rest of the league, and even a slight regression from last season’s extraordinary numbers should leave them at the top.
Dortmund remain the strongest alternative, while Leverkusen are our choice to make the biggest improvement among the leading clubs.
The closest call is fourth. Stuttgart’s continuity narrowly wins our vote over a Leipzig side whose prospects have improved considerably with Nkunku’s return.
At the bottom, Schalke are our promoted survivors, while Elversberg earn a place in the playoff. That leaves FC Köln and Paderborn occupying the automatic relegation positions.
The new league campaign begins on 28 August, two weeks after the DFB-Pokal first round and following a delayed start caused by this summer’s international tournament.
Recommended bet
Bayer Leverkusen to finish in the top four at 1.44.
Bayern to win the league is the obvious selection, but the market is likely to reflect just how strong their position is.
Leverkusen offer a more interesting angle. Sixth place last season was disappointing, but we do not believe it represents their new level. The squad has been refreshed, Martínez has inherited a club with the infrastructure and resources to compete near the top, and the early competitive signs have been positive.
The opposition is strong. Stuttgart finished fourth last season, Leipzig have brought Nkunku back and Hoffenheim deserve respect after taking fifth.
Leverkusen do not need to challenge Bayern or even Dortmund for this selection to succeed. They need to outperform enough of that chasing group to reclaim CL football, and Opta’s current projections also rate them strongly in the top-four race. We have them finishing third.
Last Updated: 27.08.2026
Odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
