PL 26/27 Preview Pt. 1: Relegation
There is rarely anything predictable about a PL relegation battle. The three promoted clubs inevitably begin under scrutiny. Coventry City, Ipswich Town and Hull City have all strengthened since earning promotion, but history tells us how difficult the jump up to the top division can be. Let’s look at the teams that will be fighting relegation in the 2026/27 PL season.
Assuming all three will immediately return to the second tier would be far too simplistic. Nottingham Forest and Leeds United finished dangerously close to the bottom three last season, while Sunderland must prove that an encouraging first year back in the PL can be followed by another.
Six teams enter our bottom third, and if our assessment proves correct, three of them will ultimately be playing Championship football next season.
Read part 2 of our PL 26/27 preview here.
Read part 3 of our PL 26/27 preview here.
Read part 1 of our Italian 26/27 season here, with part 2 and part 3 also available.
Read our preview of the French 26/27 season here.
Read our preview of the Spanish 26/26 season here.
Sunderland
Last season: 14th
Manager: Regis Le Bris
Putting Sunderland in an article about relegation may prove unnecessarily pessimistic. Their first season back in the PL was an encouraging one, with Regis Le Bris guiding the Black Cats to 14th place and comfortably achieving the primary objective of survival. Now Sunderland have to establish themselves, and that can sometimes be more difficult than getting promoted in the first place.
The momentum and excitement surrounding a newly-promoted club inevitably fade. Opponents understand the team better, expectations increase and players who performed well during their first PL campaign must demonstrate they can do it again.
Sunderland have reasons for optimism, particularly because their young core now possesses a full season of top-flight experience. Chris Rigg continues to develop into one of the country’s most exciting young midfielders, while Habib Diarra, Noah Sadiki and Chemsdine Talbi should all benefit from what they experienced last season.
Thomas Meunier adds something completely different. The Belgian brings enormous experience from Borussia Dortmund, Paris Saint-Germain and international football, and should provide leadership to a relatively young squad.
The bigger issue is attacking depth. Sunderland took only 396 shots last season, the fewest among the clubs that avoided relegation, while their expected-goals figure of 38.9 was better than only two teams in the entire division. The PL identified additional creativity behind the striker as an obvious area requiring reinforcement.
Le Bris is aware of that and has indicated that Sunderland’s transfer work is not finished, which becomes even more important when considering the additional demands they will face this season.
Sunderland’s unexpected European qualification means a squad that was able to operate with relatively little rotation last season must now cope with additional midweek matches. Their pre-season programme has been designed accordingly, with matches against Liverpool, Leeds, Wrexham and Lens before a final test against Rennes at the Stadium of Light.
Betsmith verdict: Sunderland look too strong to be one of our three relegated teams. The attacking numbers from last season are a warning, particularly with European football added to the schedule, but Le Bris has continuity and a young squad that should continue improving.
Nottingham Forest
Last season: 16th
Manager: Oliver Glasner
Nottingham Forest finished 16th last season, but their squad does not look like that of a typical relegation candidate, and that is the central argument for expecting improvement.
Oliver Glasner has taken charge and is attempting to implement the three-at-the-back system that brought him considerable success at Crystal Palace. There are players at Forest who should fit it, with Morgan Gibbs-White providing creativity between midfield and attack and Omari Hutchinson and James McAtee offering further technical options.
Igor Jesus and Arnaud Kalimuendo provide alternatives through the middle, but Forest’s problem last season was turning opportunities into goals consistently enough. Their conversion rate was only 10.1%, the fourth-lowest in the PL, giving Glasner a clear problem to solve.
He has already begun reshaping the team’s structure during pre-season, while Forest have faced a deliberately strong collection of opponents including Sporting, Udinese, Barcelona and Bayer Leverkusen.
The squad may not be finished either, with additional defensive recruitment making sense because Glasner asks a great deal from his centre-backs. They must defend space aggressively while remaining comfortable stepping forward when Forest have possession.
There should nevertheless be enough quality already at the City Ground. Last season’s position makes Forest impossible to exclude from the relegation conversation, but there is a considerable difference between being in that conversation and actually being one of the three weakest teams in the division. Forest do not look like one of the three weakest.
Betsmith verdict: We expect improvement. Glasner is a proven PL coach and inherits considerably more attacking quality than Forest’s 16th-place finish suggests. A poor start could drag them into trouble, but mid-table looks more realistic than relegation.
Leeds United
Last season: 17th
Manager: Daniel Farke
Leeds achieved what they needed to last season, with Daniel Farke’s team finishing 17th during their first campaign back in the PL and earning the opportunity to build rather than start again in the second tier.
The margins were uncomfortable enough, however, to make it clear that simply reproducing last season’s performance could send them down this time.
Harry Wilson is therefore an important addition. The Wales international contributed 10 goals and seven assists for Fulham last season and immediately provides something Leeds lacked: proven PL creativity and goals from attacking midfield areas.
James Trafford has also arrived from Manchester City to strengthen the goalkeeper position, although there have been losses elsewhere. Pascal Struijk’s move to Brighton removes an established central defender, while Jack Harrison has also left, meaning Farke must balance the improvements made elsewhere against a defence that requires attention.
There is also an interesting tactical question. Farke’s switch to a 3-5-2 played an important part in Leeds pulling themselves away from danger last season, but the downside was a lack of natural dribbling threat from wide areas. Leeds attempted only 608 take-ons, the sixth-lowest figure in the division, while their success rate was among the league’s worst.
Wilson provides creativity but does not entirely solve that problem, so the remaining weeks of the transfer window could still be important.
Pre-season has given Farke time to experiment, with Leeds travelling to the United States before returning home for their final preparation against Augsburg at Elland Road on 15 August.
Their opening league fixture could hardly be more relevant, with Leeds travelling to Nottingham Forest. One match in August will not decide who stays up, but both teams will recognise an immediate opportunity to take points from a club that could eventually become a direct rival.
Betsmith verdict: Leeds are in danger. Wilson improves the attack and Farke has already demonstrated that he can keep them up, but losing Struijk matters and there are still weaknesses in the squad. They may again find themselves fighting for survival deep into the season.
Coventry City
Last season: 1st in the Championship
Manager: Frank Lampard
Coventry arrive differently from the other promoted clubs because they come up as champions, having proved themselves to be the Championship’s best team across an entire season rather than relying on three playoff matches or an extraordinary late run.
The PL is an entirely different challenge, of course, and Lampard acknowledged early in the summer that his promotion squad lacked top-flight experience. Coventry’s recruitment has attempted to address that issue, with central midfield experience and physicality among the obvious areas requiring improvement.
Frank Onyeka provides exactly that. His PL experience with Brentford should help Coventry deal with the enormous increase in speed and physical intensity.
Gustavo Hamer’s return is another important piece of business. Hamer already understands the club and gives Lampard a midfielder willing to demand possession and create opportunities, while Loum Tchaouna adds attacking potential and Aurele Amenda strengthens the defence.
It looks like recruitment with a plan rather than simply signing as many players as possible following promotion.
Coventry also retain important members of the Championship-winning team. Matt Grimes provides composure and leadership in midfield, Bobby Thomas remains important defensively and Ellis Simms gives them a physical focal point in attack. There is enough there to give Coventry a genuine chance of survival, even if significant questions inevitably remain over how the squad will adapt to the higher level.
Their Championship numbers contained some warnings. Despite winning the league, Coventry ranked bottom in the division for interceptions and were not especially dominant in ground duels, weaknesses that PL opponents will punish more aggressively.
Their introduction could scarcely be tougher, as Coventry travel to the Emirates to face champions Arsenal in the opening match of the season on Friday, 21 August. Anything gained there would be a bonus, with their survival prospects much more likely to be determined by what happens against the teams around them.
Betsmith verdict: The promoted club we like most. Coventry arrive with the confidence of champions and have added PL experience without abandoning the team that took them up. Survival would still be a major achievement, but they have a realistic chance.
Ipswich Town
Last season: 2nd in the Championship
Manager: Gary O’Neil
Ipswich have already experienced how unforgiving the PL can be, with their previous spell in the division ending after they conceded 82 goals. One season in the Championship later, they are back, and this time Gary O’Neil is responsible for trying to keep them here.
Replacing Kieran McKenna is significant. McKenna was fundamental to Ipswich’s rise, but O’Neil brings something particularly useful for the situation the club now faces: experience of PL survival battles.
Ipswich’s transfer business also suggests they have learned from their previous attempt. Issa Diop adds proven PL experience in central defence, while Cedric Kipre provides further physical presence in an area that clearly needed attention after the defensive problems of their previous top-flight campaign.
The attack has changed too. Abdul Fatawu gives Ipswich pace and one-on-one ability, while Daizen Maeda brings relentless running, pressing and positional flexibility. Chuba Akpom provides another option through the middle.
There is a coherent idea behind those additions. O’Neil’s teams have rarely been afraid to play pragmatically, and Ipswich will sometimes have to defend deep, concede possession and attack quickly when opportunities appear. Maeda and Fatawu should be useful in precisely those circumstances.
Pre-season has produced mixed results, but far more important will be their opening league match against Sunderland at Portman Road on 22 August.
For a newly-promoted club, home matches against teams expected to finish in the lower half are invaluable. Ipswich need to make Portman Road difficult from the beginning if they are going to make their latest PL stay considerably longer than the previous one.
Betsmith verdict: Ipswich look better equipped than during their previous PL season. The recruitment addresses obvious weaknesses and O’Neil understands survival football. We expect them to be competitive, but avoiding relegation remains a very close call.
Hull City
Last season: 6th in the Championship
Manager: Sergej Jakirovic
Hull are already defying expectations simply by appearing in this article. They finished sixth in the Championship and then fought their way through the playoffs to reach the PL for the first time since 2017. It was an outstanding achievement, but also a statistically extraordinary one.
According to the PL’s pre-season analysis, Hull’s underlying numbers were those of a team that should have been fighting at the opposite end of the Championship. Their expected-points performance ranked them 23rd of 24 teams, while they allowed an expected-goals-against total of 82.5. Hull actually conceded 19.5 fewer goals than that model suggested.
That level of overperformance is extremely difficult to repeat, and doing it after stepping up to the PL is harder still.
Sergej Jakirovic therefore needs his summer recruitment to immediately improve the team rather than simply add depth. Elliot Stroud brings another option after his performances for Sweden, while the goalkeeper position has also been addressed following Ivor Pandur’s departure.
Oli McBurnie remains hugely important after scoring 17 times during the regular Championship campaign before producing the stoppage-time goal that ultimately sent Hull up.
His physical game can trouble PL defenders, but expecting him to provide too much of the attacking output himself would be dangerous. Hull need goals from elsewhere and, perhaps even more importantly, they need to become considerably more secure defensively.
An experienced centre-back is an obvious requirement given the number and quality of chances Hull allowed last season.
One thing working in their favour is the absence of enormous expectations. Coventry arrive as champions and Ipswich have recently played PL football, whereas Hull are the outsiders who were not expected to win promotion in the first place. Jakirovic can use that status, and so can a fanbase preparing for its first top-flight campaign in nine years.
Hull begin at home against Manchester United on 22 August, when the atmosphere at the MKM Stadium should be extraordinary. Emotion and home support can make them difficult opponents, but over 38 matches they will still need enough PL quality to survive.
Betsmith verdict: The favourites to go down. Hull’s promotion was a superb achievement, but their underlying Championship numbers are difficult to ignore. They need further defensive and attacking reinforcement before the transfer window closes.
Betsmith prediction: Who gets relegated?
There are essentially three levels within our bottom six. Sunderland should be looking upwards. Their attacking statistics need improvement and European football creates an additional challenge, but they have a settled manager and a young squad that now understands the PL.
Forest should also improve, with Glasner inheriting enough talent to move the club away from danger provided his tactical changes settle quickly.
That leaves four clubs fighting over what we believe could effectively become one survival position.
Leeds possess PL experience but survived narrowly last season, while Coventry have momentum, intelligent recruitment and the strongest Championship campaign of the three newcomers. Ipswich have perhaps learned the most from previous failure and have recruited accordingly.
Hull are the great unknown. Their promotion was remarkable, but the underlying data makes it difficult to predict that they will successfully make another enormous jump.
Our projected bottom six is:
15. Sunderland
16. Nottingham Forest
17. Coventry City
18. Leeds United
19. Ipswich Town
20. Hull City
That makes Coventry our promoted survivor.
There is very little between Coventry, Leeds and Ipswich, and any one of those three could reasonably finish 17th. Further transfer activity before the window closes may change the picture again.
Hull are different because their defensive numbers from the Championship are simply too concerning to overlook. Unless the squad improves significantly before September, the PL could expose weaknesses that Championship opponents failed to punish.
Recommended bet
Predicting relegation before a ball has been kicked always involves uncertainty, particularly while the transfer window remains open until 1 September.
Hull nevertheless begin with the weakest case for survival. They were the lowest-placed of the promoted clubs, their underlying Championship numbers were significantly worse than their final position, and their defensive performance relied on repeatedly conceding fewer goals than the quality of chances allowed would normally suggest.
Coventry arrive as champions, while Ipswich have recent PL experience and have strengthened areas that hurt them during their previous attempt. Hull require a greater transformation, which makes them our selection to return to the Championship.
You can find all our PL odds, including match odds and outrights, here.
Last Updated: 21.08.2026
Odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
