PL 2026/27 Preview Pt. 3: Top 3rd
Seven clubs, seven very different definitions of success. In the final part of our 2026/27 PL season preview, we take a look at the teams that will be hoping to lift the title at the end of the season, including the reigning champions from North London.
For defending champions Arsenal, anything other than another serious title challenge would be a disappointment. Manchester City want to regain their crown while adapting to life after Pep Guardiola, while Liverpool and Chelsea are trying to turn major managerial changes into immediate progress.
Manchester United and Aston Villa have CL football to protect after excellent campaigns, while Tottenham Hotspur enter the new season as perhaps the most fascinating wildcard of the group following an extraordinary summer rebuild.
These are the seven teams we believe have the strongest chance of occupying the PL’s top third in 2026/27.
Read Part 1 of our PL 26/27 preview here.
Read Part 2 of our PL 26/27 preview here.
Read our preview of the French 26/27 season here.
Read our preview of the Spanish 26/26 season here.
Read part 1 of our Italian 26/27 season here, with part 2 and part 3 also available.
Arsenal
Last season: 1st
Manager: Mikel Arteta
After three consecutive second-place finishes, Arsenal finally completed the job last season. Mikel Arteta’s side ended a 22-year wait for the PL title, finishing seven points clear of Manchester City and possessing the division’s strongest defence.
The obvious question is whether winning it once makes Arsenal even harder to stop. Their biggest summer addition certainly suggests so.
Bruno Guimaraes has joined from Newcastle United, adding another proven PL midfielder to a group already containing Declan Rice, Martin Zubimendi and their skipper.
Christos Tzolis provides another attacking option, while Arsenal have also strengthened their squad depth elsewhere. Guimaraes could be particularly significant over a 38-game campaign. Arsenal no longer need to rely quite so heavily on Rice, while Arteta has considerably more freedom to adjust his midfield depending on the opposition.
There are nevertheless early problems. William Saliba’s back injury is a major concern and leaves Arsenal without arguably their most important defender. Jurrien Timber has also been working his way back towards full fitness.
The summer’s international football action has complicated preparations too. Bukayo Saka, Rice, Zubimendi, David Raya, Mikel Merino and several others were given extended breaks after going deep into the tournament and only recently returned to full training. Managing their workloads during the opening weeks will be important.
Pre-season results have been inconsistent, but attaching too much importance to them would be dangerous given the staggered return of Arsenal’s international players.
The bigger picture remains extremely positive. This is essentially the team that won the PL last season, now with Guimaraes added to its midfield.
Arsenal spent several years learning how to compete for a championship. Last season they learned how to win one.
Betsmith verdict: The team to beat. Saliba’s absence could make the opening weeks uncomfortable, but Arsenal possess the strongest combination of continuity, depth and recent performance. Retaining the title is a realistic expectation rather than an optimistic target.
Manchester City
Last season: 2nd
Manager: Enzo Maresca
For Manchester City, everything feels familiar and unfamiliar at the same time. Their power striker is still there. Phil Foden is still there. The squad remains packed with international quality.
Pep Guardiola is not. Enzo Maresca has returned to Manchester to succeed the manager who defined the most successful era in City’s history. Having previously worked under Guardiola, Maresca understands the club and many of its footballing principles.
That does not make replacing Guardiola any easier. City finished seven points behind Arsenal last season despite their number 9 scoring 27 league goals and collecting another Golden Boot.
The summer has subsequently removed a remarkable amount of experience from the squad. Bernardo Silva, John Stones, Nathan Ake and Manuel Akanji have all departed, while goalkeeper James Trafford has moved to Leeds.
Elliot Anderson represents the headline addition. The England international has joined from Nottingham Forest and gives City an athletic, technically strong midfielder capable of operating in several roles.
There is still plenty of attacking talent around their main striker. Omar Marmoush has looked sharp during pre-season, while Foden, Rayan Cherki, Savinho and Antoine Semenyo give Maresca numerous combinations behind their target man.
City’s 3-1 pre-season victory over Atlético Madrid was particularly encouraging, with Marmoush scoring twice. The biggest uncertainty concerns the transition itself.
Guardiola did far more than select City’s formation. His methods shaped almost every element of the club’s football for a decade. Maresca shares some of those ideas, but he will inevitably want to establish his own team.
That process may cost points. City also need to ensure that a squad which has lost several experienced defenders retains enough depth to cope with another campaign across multiple competitions. One thing is unlikely to change: their top scorer will score goals. If the rest of the transition is smooth, City can regain the title.
Betsmith verdict: Arsenal’s biggest challenger, thought this wasn’t too evident in Arsenal’s 3-0 win in Cardiff last weekend. City have too much quality to fall far, but replacing Guardiola and several hugely experienced players simultaneously creates more uncertainty than we have associated with them for years.
Liverpool
Last season: 5th
Manager: Andoni Iraola
Liverpool went from champions to fifth in the space of 12 months. That decline brought an end to Arne Slot’s time at Anfield and opened the door for one of the PL’s most highly regarded coaches.
Andoni Iraola arrives after transforming Bournemouth into a European team. His Liverpool should be fascinating to watch. Iraola favours aggressive pressing, quick attacking transitions and a willingness to commit players forward. Liverpool possess many of the physical and technical qualities required to make that football work.
They also have to do it without Mohamed Salah. Salah’s move to Trabzonspor represents the end of one of the greatest individual spells in Liverpool’s history. Replacing his goals is difficult enough; replacing his ability to decide matches almost single-handedly is harder.
Victor Munoz has arrived from Osasuna to strengthen the wide areas, while Jeremy Jacquet has joined from Rennes. Liverpool have also strengthened defensively with Ronald Araujo, providing Iraola with another high-level centre-back as he attempts to solve one of the biggest problems exposed during pre-season.
There is encouraging news on Jacquet, who scored in their friendly against Como recently, while Curtis Jones has also been involved again.
Going forward, Liverpool remain extremely dangerous. Alexander Isak provides an elite centre-forward, Florian Wirtz is capable of creating and scoring, while Cody Gakpo offers another proven attacking threat. The concern is balance. Liverpool’s 3-2 pre-season defeat against Monaco provided a warning. Iraola’s high defensive line was repeatedly exposed after his side had taken a two-goal lead.
That is precisely the type of issue that can separate a title challenge from merely qualifying for the CL. Iraola still has time to fix it. If he does, Liverpool have the individual quality to make last season’s fifth-place finish look like an anomaly.
Betsmith verdict: Expect improvement. Liverpool may need time to adapt to Iraola and life without Salah, but their ceiling remains extremely high. We see them as stronger candidates for the top three than for the title itself.
Chelsea
Last season: 10th
Manager: Xabi Alonso
Chelsea are the most difficult team in the top third to assess. Their 10th-place finish last season clearly does not belong alongside Arsenal, City or even Liverpool.
Their squad potentially does. Xabi Alonso has taken charge following his spells with Bayer Leverkusen and Real Madrid, giving Chelsea another major reset after a deeply disappointing domestic campaign.
The headline summer arrival is Morgan Rogers. Chelsea paid heavily to take the England international from Aston Villa after his emergence as one of the PL’s most dangerous attacking midfielders. The possibility of Rogers and Cole Palmer operating in the same attack is hugely exciting.
Maxence Lacroix has strengthened central defence, while Valentin Barco provides another option on the left. Chelsea have also taken the unusual step of adding experience.
Jordan Henderson and Danny Welbeck bring hundreds of PL appearances into a squad that has frequently appeared to lack leadership. Welbeck is particularly interesting after scoring 13 PL goals for Brighton last season.
Pre-season has shown both sides of Chelsea. There have been promising attacking passages as Alonso begins implementing his preferred football, but a 3-3 draw with Johor Darul Ta’zim also demonstrated that the defensive structure remains a work in progress.
Alonso has plenty of players. His first challenge is working out exactly which ones he needs. Chelsea’s enormous squad has frequently been presented as a strength, but constant competition for places can make it difficult to establish partnerships and a settled starting XI.
There is enough quality to make a huge jump from 10th. Whether there is enough cohesion to jump all the way into a title race is another question.
Betsmith verdict: Chelsea should improve significantly. Rogers and Palmer could become one of the league’s most entertaining combinations, while Alonso is an exciting appointment. Moving directly from 10th to champions looks unrealistic, but CL qualification should be the target.
Manchester United
Last season: 3rd
Manager: Michael Carrick
Manchester United enter a PL season with something they have not always possessed in recent years: genuine momentum.
Michael Carrick transformed their 2025/26 campaign after replacing Ruben Amorim in January. Eleven victories from 16 PL matches carried United to third place and CL qualification, earning Carrick the permanent job.
The question now is whether that extraordinary half-season can be reproduced across 38 matches. United have concentrated much of their summer work on midfield.
Youri Tielemans has arrived from Aston Villa, bringing PL experience and creativity, while Andrey Santos adds energy and defensive aggression after joining from Chelsea. Casemiro’s departure makes that rebuild necessary rather than cosmetic.
There is also the intriguing return of Marcus Rashford. Barcelona decided against making his loan move permanent despite a productive season in Spain, and Carrick has offered him an opportunity to re-establish himself at Old Trafford.
With Benjamin Sesko, Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha and Amad also available, United have plenty of attacking options. Bruno Fernandes remains the central creative influence. Fitness is the more immediate concern.
Mason Mount has suffered another injury setback during pre-season, while several other players have had disrupted preparations following injuries or this summer’s international football action.
United’s friendly programme has nevertheless produced encouraging signs after an early defeat against Wrexham. including a win against Atlético Madrid and a draw with Paris Saint-Germain. Carrick’s biggest advantage is that he does not need to convince these players his methods can work.
They already know. His challenge is demonstrating that what happened between January and May was sustainable rather than an exceptional short-term run.
Betsmith verdict: United are genuine top-four candidates. Carrick transformed them last season and the midfield looks better equipped after the summer changes. A title challenge still feels premature, but another CL qualification would confirm that United are finally moving in the right direction.
Aston Villa
Last season: 4th
Manager: Unai Emery
Aston Villa have reached the stage where qualifying for Europe no longer feels extraordinary. That alone demonstrates how much has changed under Unai Emery.
Villa finished fourth last season and also won the EL, adding silverware to another CL qualification. Maintaining that level may be harder.
Morgan Rogers has left for Chelsea and Tielemans has joined Manchester United, removing two extremely influential players from Emery’s team.
Amadou Onana’s long-term injury created another major midfield problem. Villa have responded.
Johan Manzambi has arrived from Freiburg following an excellent tournament with Switzerland this summer, while Joao Gomes brings proven PL qualities after joining from Wolves. Alejandro Garnacho has added pace and unpredictability in attack.
Boubacar Kamara’s return from injury is another significant boost and should help Emery reconstruct his midfield. There are nevertheless questions around the beginning of the season.
Villa’s preparations were partly disrupted by the absence of Ezri Konsa, Ollie Watkins and Emiliano Martinez, three players who form part of the spine of Emery’s team. That illustrates one of Villa’s biggest challenges.
Their strongest XI can compete with almost anyone. Maintaining that standard when important players are missing is harder, particularly when CL football places additional pressure on the squad. Replacing Rogers is another challenge.
His ability to carry the ball through midfield and create something from nothing became central to Villa’s attacking football. Garnacho brings different qualities rather than providing a direct replacement.
Emery remains the reason to believe. Only Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City have collected more PL points than Villa since he took charge. He has repeatedly found tactical solutions when injuries or departures threatened to derail progress. Villa may need him to do so again.
Betsmith verdict: Villa remain one of the league’s strongest teams, but repeating fourth place will be extremely difficult. Rogers and Tielemans are major losses and CL football increases the workload. Emery should keep them in the European conversation, but we expect some regression.
Tottenham Hotspur
Last season: 17th
Manager: Roberto De Zerbi
No club in this article illustrates the unpredictability of a new season better than Tottenham. Spurs finished 17th last season. Now we are putting them in the PL’s prospective top third. That tells you what kind of summer they have had.
Roberto De Zerbi has been heavily backed after Tottenham survived on the final day, with the club recognising that small adjustments were nowhere near enough. Sandro Tonali has arrived from Newcastle and Mateus Fernandes from West Ham, completely changing the options in central midfield.
Jan Paul van Hecke has reunited with De Zerbi after joining from Brighton, while Marcos Senesi provides another experienced centre-back. Andrew Robertson adds PL and CL winning experience on the left. It is a substantial overhaul.
Tonali could be the transformative signing. At his best, the Italian provides exactly the type of technical security, passing range and intensity required in De Zerbi’s midfield. The biggest problem is creativity further forward.
James Maddison’s knee injury leaves Tottenham without one of their most natural playmakers, and the club are still assessing attacking additions before the transfer window closes. That business could determine how high Spurs can realistically climb.
Dominic Solanke and Mathys Tel give De Zerbi centre-forward options, but Tottenham need more goals and creativity around them. Pre-season has already provided signs of the football De Zerbi wants to build.
Possession will matter, but so will attracting opponents forward before playing through pressure. Tonali and Fernandes should make Tottenham considerably better equipped to execute that style than they were last season.
The transformation cannot be expected to happen immediately. Several new players need to settle, De Zerbi needs to establish his preferred combinations and last season’s collapse cannot simply be erased from memory. But this is not the same Tottenham squad.
Betsmith verdict: Our wildcard in the top seven. Predicting a team to jump from 17th into the European conversation is aggressive, but Tottenham’s recruitment justifies considerably higher expectations. Another creative signing would strengthen the argument further.
Betsmith prediction: Who finishes in the top seven?
Arsenal begin with the fewest questions. They are champions, Arteta remains in charge and Guimaraes improves a midfield that was already among the best in England.
Manchester City remain their most serious rivals, but replacing Guardiola creates an uncertainty that Arsenal simply do not have.
Liverpool should recover from last season’s disappointing fifth-place finish. Iraola inherits enough attacking talent to challenge near the top, although replacing Salah and correcting their defensive vulnerabilities could prevent a genuine title push.
Chelsea are capable of making one of the league’s biggest improvements. Alonso has been given another extremely talented squad, but asking him to turn 10th into first immediately is excessive.
Manchester United have a more convincing recent body of work. Carrick’s impact was remarkable and another top-four challenge looks entirely realistic.
Villa and Tottenham may then contest the remaining position in our top seven. Villa possess greater continuity and the proven brilliance of Emery, but their summer losses are significant. Tottenham are starting from much further back but have attacked their weaknesses aggressively in the transfer market.
Our projected top seven is:
1. Arsenal
2. Manchester City
3. Liverpool
4. Manchester United
5. Chelsea
6. Aston Villa
7. Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal are our choice to retain the PL title. The gap between third and seventh, however, could be considerably smaller than the gap between those clubs last season.
Liverpool, United and Chelsea all have realistic CL ambitions, while Villa have already demonstrated that they belong at this level.
Tottenham are the gamble. After finishing 17th, seventh would represent an extraordinary improvement. But with De Zerbi in charge and a midfield rebuilt around Tonali and Fernandes, there are enough reasons to believe Spurs can become one of the season’s biggest movers.
Recommended bet
Arsenal to win the PL at 2.25
There are reasons to question every leading contender, but fewer reasons to question Arsenal than anyone else.
Manchester City are adapting to life without Guardiola, Liverpool have lost Salah and changed manager, while Chelsea are attempting to bridge an enormous gap from last season. Arsenal already know how to win this league.
Guimaraes strengthens the champions rather than rebuilding them, and once their new players are fully reintegrated, Arteta should again have the deepest and most balanced squad in the title race.
You can find all our PL odds, including match odds and outrights, here.
Last Updated: 21.08.2026
Odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
