French 26/27 Season Preview
Paris Saint-Germain begin the French 26/27 league campaign as overwhelming favourites, but predicting the champions is considerably easier than working out what happens behind them. Let’s take a closer look at the French league ahead of this weekend’s kick-off.
Lens finished second and won the Coupe de France last season before beating PSG in the Trophée des Champions on Sunday. Lille and Lyon completed the top four, Marseille fell to fifth and several of France’s biggest clubs have subsequently changed managers.
At the opposite end, Nice survived only through the relegation playoff and must rebuild after an extraordinary collapse, while Ligue 2 champions Troyes and runners-up Le Mans arrive in the top flight. Here is how we expect the 18 clubs to line up.
Read part 1 of our Italian 26/27 season here, with part 2 and part 3 also available.
Read part 1 of our PL 26/27 season here, with part 2 and part 3 also out.
Read our preview of the Spanish 26/26 season here.
PSG remain the team everyone has to catch
Five consecutive league titles tell the story. PSG’s domestic dominance has become so established that predicting anybody else requires evidence that the champions have weakened significantly or one of their rivals has made an enormous step forward.
Neither has happened. Luis Enrique retains an extraordinary collection of attacking talent, including Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, while Maghnes Akliouche provides another high-quality option following his summer arrival.
The statistics from last season were equally intimidating. PSG led the league for goals, expected goals, possession and shots while also producing the league’s best defensive record. They were not simply the most talented team; they controlled matches more effectively than everybody else.
There is one reason for challengers to retain hope. Lens finished only six points behind them. The runners-up then reinforced the point by beating PSG 1-0 in the Trophée des Champions, surviving more than 50 minutes with 10 men to collect the first French trophy of the season. Lens therefore deserve second place in our prediction.
The difficulty comes when asking them to go one better. Pierre Sage has left for Crystal Palace, with Dino Toppmöller replacing him, while several important members of last season’s squad have departed. Mamadou Sangaré, Adrien Thomasson, Wesley Saïd and Allan Saint-Maximin are among the losses.
Thorgan Hazard and Michaël Cuisance provide experience among a substantial collection of arrivals, but integrating so many players while adapting to a new coach is difficult. Lens also have European football to manage.
They remain our strongest alternative to PSG, but there is a substantial difference between being the second-best team in France and actually finishing above PSG.
Prediction: PSG 1st, Lens 2nd.
Lille and Lyon lead a crowded CL race
Picking third and fourth is considerably harder. Lille occupy third in our projection despite losing Bruno Génésio.
Davide Ancelotti is an intriguing replacement. At only 36, he has spent much of his coaching career alongside his father Carlo and now has an opportunity to demonstrate his own ability as a head coach. The advantage is that Lille are not asking him to rescue a struggling team.
They finished third last season and already possess a structure capable of competing near the top. Başar Önal adds another interesting attacking option, although continued speculation around Ayyoub Bouaddi means the final weeks of the transfer window remain important.
We have Lyon fourth. Paulo Fonseca provides managerial continuity following last season’s fourth-place finish, something that suddenly looks extremely valuable in a league where two-thirds of the clubs have changed coach this summer.
Lyon’s European schedule creates an additional challenge, but the squad has enough quality to remain in the CL conversation.
Marseille come next. Hiring Génésio from Lille is one of the most interesting managerial moves of the summer. His knowledge of French football is extensive and his third-place finish last season demonstrates that he can produce exactly the type of campaign Marseille require.
Losing Mason Greenwood to Fenerbahçe is significant. Replacing his goals becomes one of Génésio’s first major problems, and it is the principal reason we have Marseille fifth rather than inside the top four.
Rennes, Monaco and Strasbourg should not be ignored. Rennes finished sixth last season and missed Europe narrowly, while Monaco have enough talent to recover from a disappointing seventh. Strasbourg are our outsiders.
They have no European commitments and therefore receive something most of their direct competitors will regularly lack: uninterrupted weeks on the training ground. That may not sound as exciting as a major transfer, but over 34 matches it matters.
Prediction: Lille 3rd, Lyon 4th, Marseille 5th, Rennes 6th, Monaco 7th, Strasbourg 8th.
The strongest mid-table teams
Toulouse are our choice to finish ninth. They have become a reliable top division side and possess enough quality to trouble the European contenders without quite having the depth required to join them over an entire campaign.
Paris FC follow in 10th. Last season’s 11th-place finish represented a successful return to the division, but simply surviving is no longer the extent of the club’s ambition.
Liam Rosenior is now in charge, and his preference for possession-based football makes Paris FC one of the more interesting teams outside the European race.
There is considerable financial ambition around the project, but progression needs to be sustainable. Breaking immediately into the top six would be a major achievement; moving into the top half looks much more realistic.
Lorient are our 11th-place selection after finishing 10th last season. They were widely expected to struggle more than they did, and their performance provided enough evidence to suggest another comfortable campaign rather than a return to the bottom.
Brest come next. Their recent achievements have consistently exceeded expectations, but Éric Roy’s departure creates uncertainty. Julien Lachuer inherits a club that has become accustomed to punching above its financial weight, which can be an uncomfortable expectation for a new coach.
Auxerre complete our mid-table group. They secured their top division status with an impressive 2-0 victory at Lille on the final day last season and have enough organization to remain above the weakest sides.
Prediction: Toulouse 9th, Paris FC 10th, Lorient 11th, Brest 12th, Auxerre 13th.
Nice must prove last season was an exception
Nice are perhaps the strangest club to place in the entire table. On squad quality and resources, 14th looks pessimistic. On last season’s evidence, it may be generous.
Nice finished 16th and were forced into the relegation playoff, eventually retaining their top division status by defeating Saint-Étienne 4-1 on aggregate. That cannot be treated as a minor underperformance.
A club with European ambitions came dangerously close to playing in Ligue 2, and the burden of proof now lies with Nice to demonstrate that the problems responsible have been corrected.
We expect improvement. There is too much quality for another 16th-place finish to be the most likely outcome, but predicting an immediate return to Europe would require considerably more faith.
Fourteenth represents our compromise: clear of relegation without pretending everything has suddenly been fixed.
Troyes can survive after winning Ligue 2
Promoted teams are often automatically placed in the bottom three of pre-season predictions. We think Troyes can do better.
Winning Ligue 2 gives them a stronger starting point than a team arriving through the playoffs, and they have supplemented the promotion squad rather than assuming the same group can simply reproduce its performances at a higher level.
Patrick Beach is one interesting addition. The Australian goalkeeper arrives following an impressive tournament this summer and gives Troyes a young player with significant development potential. The bigger advantage is confidence.
Troyes spent last season learning how to win. The top division will obviously present a much greater challenge, but promoted champions regularly carry momentum into the opening months. We have them 15th.
That leaves Le Havre, Angers and Le Mans occupying the decisive bottom three positions.
The relegation battle
Le Havre survive in our prediction, but only through the playoff. Fourteenth last season demonstrated how small their margin already was, and there has not been enough improvement to move them convincingly away from danger.
The distinction between 14th and 17th in this part of the standings can be extremely small. A few injuries, a poor run during the winter or losing two crucial matches against direct opponents can transform an acceptable season into a crisis.
Angers are our first automatic relegation selection. They finished 13th last season, but underlying expectations for 2026/27 are considerably less encouraging. The squad appears vulnerable relative to several direct competitors, while Troyes arrive with enough momentum to push another established club downwards.
That leaves Le Mans. Their story deserves admiration before any prediction is made. Two successive promotions have taken the club from the third tier into the very top of French football, with Patrick Videira overseeing a team that lost only four of 34 league matches last season. They arrive knowing how to avoid defeat. The concern is how rapidly the level has changed.
Le Mans are effectively attempting to adapt a club built for the third tier into one capable of competing with PSG, Marseille, Lyon and Monaco within a period of two years. Their budget is among the smallest in the league and the squad has not had the gradual development usually required for consolidation at this level.
That does not make survival impossible. Promoted clubs frequently outperform expectations because tactical organisation, confidence and collective identity can compensate for financial disadvantages. Le Mans possess all three. We simply think the jump will ultimately prove too large.
Prediction: Nice 14th, Troyes 15th, Le Havre 16th, Angers 17th, Le Mans 18th.
Our predicted 26/27 table
Our complete 2026/27 prediction is:
1. PSG – champions
2. Lens
3. Lille
4. Lyon
5. Marseille
6. Rennes
7. Monaco
8. Strasbourg
9. Toulouse
10. Paris FC
11. Lorient
12. Brest
13. Auxerre
14. Nice
15. Troyes
16. Le Havre – relegation playoff
17. Angers – relegated
18. Le Mans – relegated
The title is the easiest part of the table to predict. PSG have the best squad, the strongest recent record and a manager who has established a system capable of dominating domestically while competing at the highest European level.
Lens are the clear second choice after last season’s achievements, but their managerial change and considerable squad turnover make overtaking PSG unlikely.
Third through eighth is much more uncertain. Lille have earned our confidence after last season, while Lyon benefit from continuity under Fonseca. Marseille could easily finish above both if Génésio settles immediately and the attack successfully replaces Greenwood’s production.
Strasbourg are the club most capable of making our eighth-place prediction look overly conservative. At the bottom, Troyes survive at the first attempt, leaving Le Havre in the playoff and Angers and Le Mans relegated automatically.
Recommended bet
Lens to finish in the top four at 1.95.
Backing PSG to win the league is the obvious prediction, but depending on the market it may offer limited value. Lens provide a more interesting alternative.
There are legitimate concerns. Sage has left, several important players have moved on and European football will increase the demands on the squad. The counterargument is the evidence already available.
Lens finished second last season, won the Coupe de France and began the new campaign by beating PSG in the Trophée des Champions despite playing most of the second half with 10 men. That is a substantial body of evidence that this club belongs near the top of the league.
Toppmöller does not need to reproduce everything Sage achieved or mount another serious title challenge for the bet to succeed. Lens simply need to remain among France’s four strongest teams.
Lille, Lyon, Marseille, Rennes and Monaco make that far from guaranteed, but we believe Lens have enough quality to withstand their summer changes and qualify for the CL again.
Last Updated: 21.08.2026
Odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
