Italian 26/27 Preview Pt. 3: Relegation
The bottom six of our predicted Italian league standings contains three established top-flight clubs and all three of last season’s promoted sides. Part 3 of our preview series of the 2026/27 Italian season focus on the teams we believe will be in danger of relegation.
Parma, Cagliari and Lecce all survived in 2025/26, although their circumstances were very different. Parma finished comfortably in mid-table during an impressive first season under Carlos Cuesta, while Cagliari and particularly Lecce had considerably more reason to keep an eye on the relegation places.
They are joined by Serie B champions Venezia, runners-up Frosinone and playoff winners Monza. Venezia and Frosinone both secured automatic promotion, while Monza completed the 20-team league lineup through the playoffs.
We do not expect all three newcomers to go straight back down. Venezia have spent heavily enough to give themselves a realistic chance of survival, while Frosinone have also made several ambitious additions. For Lecce and Monza in particular, the margins look extremely small.
Read part 1 of our 26/27 Italian football season preview here.
Read part 2 of our 26/27 Italian football season preview here.
Read our preview of the French 26/27 season here.
Read our preview of the Spanish 26/26 season here.
Read part 1 of our PL 26/27 season here, with part 2 and part 3 also out.
Parma
Last season: 12th
Manager: Carlos Cuesta
Parma are the strongest team in this section and could easily finish higher than 15th. Carlos Cuesta’s first season as a senior head coach was an impressive one. Appointed at only 29 after working as an assistant at Arsenal, he demonstrated that Parma’s decision to take a chance on a young coach was based on considerably more than potential.
Twelfth place represented genuine progress rather than simple survival. The benefit entering 2026/27 is continuity. Parma already understand Cuesta’s ideas and do not need to spend pre-season adapting to another tactical overhaul, while another year working with a young squad should naturally produce improvement in several areas.
There is, however, one significant late complication. Zion Suzuki is on his way to Aston Villa after the PL club agreed a deal worth around €35m for the Japan international. Suzuki’s performances for Parma and at this summer substantially increased his reputation, and replacing him this close to the beginning of the league season will not be straightforward.
His importance went beyond making saves. Suzuki’s ability with the ball fitted Cuesta’s preference for building from the back, meaning Parma need to find a goalkeeper comfortable participating in possession rather than simply an adequate shot-stopper.
The financial return at least gives them considerable scope to find a replacement before the transfer window closes on 1 September.
The rest of the picture is more reassuring. Parma have a settled manager, a squad accustomed to his requirements and the confidence gained from finishing comfortably clear of trouble last season.
Their inclusion in this article therefore should not be interpreted as a prediction that they will spend the campaign desperately fighting relegation. Somebody has to finish 15th, and the difference between Parma and several of the teams immediately above them could be extremely small.
Betsmith verdict: Parma should survive comfortably enough. Losing Suzuki is a genuine setback, but Cuesta has already shown that his methods work. We have them 15th, with every chance of outperforming that prediction.
Cagliari
Last season: 15th
Manager: Fabio Pisacane
Cagliari have something the promoted clubs cannot acquire in the transfer market: recent experience of surviving the division.
Fabio Pisacane remains in charge after keeping the Sardinian side in the division and now has the opportunity to build rather than start again.
The midfield has received particular attention. Jacopo Fazzini has joined from Fiorentina on loan with an option to buy, giving Cagliari a midfielder capable of carrying the ball and making attacking runs from deeper positions. The deal could eventually be worth around €8m.
Harry Winks adds a different type of quality. His ability to retain possession and dictate tempo should help Cagliari during matches in which simply surrendering the ball and defending for long periods would otherwise become the default approach. That does not suddenly transform them into a top-half team.
Cagliari still lack the individual attacking quality available to most clubs higher in our predicted table, and there will inevitably be periods when scoring enough goals becomes difficult.
Their home form should again be crucial. Survival teams cannot rely on collecting unexpected victories against Inter, Napoli or Juventus. The decisive fixtures are generally those against opponents in the same part of the table, and Cagliari need to make their home advantage count against Venezia, Frosinone, Monza and Lecce.
Pisacane at least begins with greater stability than many of those rivals. There is no need for a tactical revolution, while the summer additions appear designed to improve specific weaknesses rather than rebuild the entire squad.
Betsmith verdict: Cagliari should stay up. We expect another season spent in the bottom half, but the combination of continuity, top division experience and improved midfield options gives them an advantage over the leading relegation candidates.
Venezia
Last season: 1st in Serie B
Manager: Giovanni Stroppa
Venezia are our choice to break the traditional pattern and survive immediately after promotion. They return as Serie B champions rather than a team that scraped through the playoffs, and Giovanni Stroppa has extensive experience of building promotion-winning sides. The more important development is what Venezia have done since going up.
Akor Adams has arrived from Sevilla in a club-record deal worth around €17m plus bonuses. That is an enormous commitment by Venezia’s standards and represents a clear attempt to address one of the biggest problems facing promoted teams: finding a striker capable of scoring against top division defenders.
Adams brings experience from Spain and international football, but he does not arrive as the only attacking threat.
Andrea Adorante and John Yeboah were important during the promotion campaign, giving Stroppa options rather than forcing him to depend entirely on his expensive new signing.
Venezia have strengthened elsewhere as well, recognising that the defensive mistakes which go unpunished in Serie B tend to become goals in the top division.
Their approach is encouraging because the club have recent experience of discovering how difficult this step can be.
Venezia have repeatedly moved between Italy’s top two divisions without establishing themselves in the top division. This time, the recruitment suggests they are attempting to change that rather than simply retain the squad that earned promotion and hope momentum will be enough.
There are still obvious risks. Venezia will spend considerably less time controlling matches than they did last season, and their attacking players will receive fewer clear opportunities. Stroppa therefore needs his side to become more efficient without completely abandoning the football that took them up.
Their opening competitive preparations have already provided Adams with an opportunity to settle into his new surroundings, and the size of the investment indicates that he will be expected to become the focal point immediately.
Betsmith verdict: Our promoted team to survive. Venezia were the best side in Serie B and have subsequently made the strongest statement of the three newcomers in the transfer market. We predict 17th, but there is enough upside for them to finish several places higher.
Lecce
Last season: 17th
Manager: Eusebio Di Francesco
Lecce have made a habit of surviving when predictions suggest they should not. This time, we think their luck finally runs out.
That is not a criticism of Eusebio Di Francesco, who did his job by keeping Lecce in the division last season. The concern is whether the squad has improved sufficiently to repeat the achievement when the promoted clubs appear stronger than usual.
The summer has hardly provided an ideal preparation. Lameck Banda’s situation has become particularly disruptive. His contract was extended by Lecce into 2027, but he failed to return as expected following his summer break, leaving Di Francesco publicly disappointed and the club considering how to resolve the situation.
That matters because Banda offers a quality Lecce desperately need. Against stronger league opponents, they inevitably spend long periods defending. A winger capable of carrying the ball quickly into space can turn a defensive situation into an attack without requiring elaborate build-up play.
Lecce’s recruitment is also not complete. Reports in Italy indicate that the club are still looking for two wide players and a full-back, meaning Di Francesco could yet receive important reinforcements before the window closes.
That makes them one of the teams whose outlook could change most dramatically before September. As things stand, however, the attack remains a concern.
Lecce do not need to score heavily to survive, but they do need enough goals to turn narrow matches into wins. When a team finishes 17th, even a small decline in attacking production or defensive reliability can be the difference between survival and relegation.
There is plenty of experience in their favour. Di Francesco knows the league, the squad understands the pressure of a relegation battle and Lecce have repeatedly demonstrated that they can collect points when the situation becomes desperate. This year, we think the competition immediately around them is slightly stronger.
Betsmith verdict: Relegated, but only narrowly. Lecce have repeatedly found a way out of trouble and could easily prove this prediction wrong again. For now, however, we have Venezia edging them to 17th and Lecce finishing 18th.
Frosinone
Last season: 2nd in Serie B
Manager: Massimiliano Alvini
Frosinone have been promoted to the top division before. Staying there has proved rather more difficult. Their previous three top-flight campaigns all ended in immediate relegation, and the challenge for Massimiliano Alvini is to finally break that cycle.
There are reasons to believe this squad is better prepared than some of its predecessors. Frosinone earned automatic promotion rather than coming through the playoffs, sealing second place with an emphatic 5-0 victory over Mantova.
More importantly, their summer recruitment has become increasingly ambitious. Romano Schmid has arrived from Werder Bremen for around €8.5m, giving Frosinone an Austria international with substantial Bundesliga experience and the technical quality to create chances from midfield.
Aleksa Terzić has joined from Red Bull Salzburg for around €2.5m, while Kevin Akpoguma, Alessio Zerbin, Luis Hasa and Sebastiano Desplanches are among several other additions.
This is not a club approaching promotion passively. Frosinone understand that the squad which finished second in Serie B needs additional top division-level quality, and they have attempted to provide it.
Fares Ghedjemis remains another important figure after his excellent promotion campaign. Interest from elsewhere has inevitably followed, but Frosinone’s position has been that they want to retain one of their principal attacking threats.
The concern is whether all of these additions can be integrated quickly enough. Alvini has his own difficult top division history after his previous spell with Cremonese ended without a league victory during his tenure. He is a more experienced coach now, but the pressure of trying to establish a promoted team at this level is very different from competing near the top of Serie B.
There is enough here to make Frosinone competitive, and we rate them considerably more highly than a routine 19th-place prediction might suggest. Unfortunately for them, somebody has to lose an extremely tight survival battle.
Betsmith verdict: Frosinone are our most difficult relegation call. Their transfer window has been impressive and Schmid could prove an excellent signing, but we still have them marginally below Venezia and Lecce. Nineteenth looks harsh, but the bottom of the league should be exceptionally competitive.
Monza
Last season: 3rd in Serie B, promoted through the playoffs
Manager: Ivan Jurić
Monza arrive with more top division experience than most playoff winners, but they also begin with more questions than either Venezia or Frosinone.
They finished behind both of those clubs during the regular Serie B campaign and needed the playoffs to secure an immediate return to the top flight. Venezia and Frosinone went up automatically, with Monza subsequently completing the promoted trio.
The club then changed coach. Ivan Jurić replaced Paolo Bianco after promotion and is attempting to rebuild his own reputation following difficult spells with Roma, Southampton and Atalanta. Monza officially appointed him at the end of June.
There is a compelling argument for the appointment. The Jurić who managed Verona and Torino would be an excellent fit for a survival battle. His teams were aggressive, physically demanding and uncomfortable to play against, often performing above expectations without possessing elite squads. Monza need that version of him.
The squad contains useful top division experience, reducing the adaptation problem faced by many promoted teams. There has also been investment in younger players, including Ebenezer Akinsanmiro from Inter, while the club continue to explore additional midfield and attacking options before the deadline.
The concern is whether the overall quality has improved enough. Monza’s previous top division campaign ended in relegation, and they were not dominant enough in Serie B last season to suggest that promotion alone has solved the underlying problems.
Changing manager immediately after going up introduces another layer of uncertainty. Jurić must implement a demanding tactical system while simultaneously preparing players for a higher standard of opposition. If the early results are poor, the pressure could build quickly.
There is certainly enough experience for Monza to make our prediction look foolish, particularly if Jurić rediscovers the methods that made his Torino and Verona teams so effective. At the moment, though, we see more convincing survival arguments elsewhere.
Betsmith verdict: Our 20th-place prediction. Monza should be competitive and Jurić gives them a chance, but they begin behind Venezia and Frosinone based on last season and have less stability than Lecce or Cagliari.
Betsmith prediction: Who gets relegated?
This time, the calculation is straightforward. Parma are our strongest team in the bottom six and could easily finish above 15th. Cuesta has already proved himself in the league, and although Suzuki’s departure creates an unwanted problem, Parma possess enough quality and stability to remain clear of serious danger.
Cagliari follow in 16th. Pisacane knows the squad, the midfield has improved and their recent experience of survival should prove valuable. The decisive call is 17th. We are backing Venezia.
The Serie B champions have done more than simply retain faith in the squad that won promotion. Breaking the club transfer record for Adams is a serious statement, and Stroppa has enough experience to understand where his team needs to adapt.
That leaves Lecce, Frosinone and Monza below the line. Lecce are the closest to escaping. They survived in 17th last season and Di Francesco gives them an experienced coach, but the unresolved Banda situation and an incomplete transfer window leave us unconvinced that the squad has improved.
Frosinone have arguably recruited better, particularly with Schmid, Terzić and Akpoguma, but translating a large number of new arrivals into immediate top division results is another matter.
Monza complete our bottom three. They were the weakest of the promoted clubs across last season’s league campaign and enter this season under a new manager attempting to rebuild his own career.
Our final bottom six is therefore:
15. Parma
16. Cagliari
17. Venezia
18. Lecce – relegated
19. Frosinone – relegated
20. Monza – relegated
That also completes the projected table across all three Betsmith articles, with Lecce, Frosinone and Monza our three selections for relegation.
The difference between 17th and 19th could be extremely small. Venezia are not a confident survival prediction so much as our choice from four clubs that could realistically spend the final weeks separated by only a few points.
Recommended bet
Monza to be relegated at 1.57.
Monza are our preferred relegation selection because they combine several of the risk factors present elsewhere in this group.
They were promoted through the playoffs rather than automatically, finished behind both Venezia and Frosinone over the full Serie B season and have subsequently changed manager.
Jurić is the factor that makes us cautious. His work with Verona and Torino demonstrated that he can make modest top division squads extremely difficult to beat, and reproducing that form would give Monza an excellent chance of survival. His recent managerial record, however, makes that outcome considerably less certain.
Venezia have invested heavily after winning Serie B, while Frosinone have strengthened with players including Schmid, Terzić and Akpoguma. Lecce at least possess recent evidence that they can survive at this level.
Monza have enough experience to remain competitive, but of the six clubs in this article, they currently have the weakest overall case.
You can find all our Italian football odds, including match odds and outrights, here.
Last Updated: 21.08.2026
Odds might have changed since the writing and/or publication of this article.
